? 4 the Pros on Intesity at Landfall.

sea oat · #1 Postby **sea oat** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:48 pm

Any input from the professionals would be greatly appreciated. I live in Ft Walton Beach, FL and am deciding when to evacuate. They have voluntary evacs for south of hwy 98 on the island. I live a bit north of there maybe 1 miles the way the crow flies. I've been through strong cat 3's, i.e. Opal and Eloise. I have not seen any real information about what strength they expect this thing to hit the coast.

Thank you in advance for any input.

Opal storm · #2 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:59 pm

Believe it or not,they do a much better job forecasting the path than they do the strength.So as of now,there's really no telling how strong Ivan will be at landfall.But with it still a cat 5,there's a very good chance it could make landfall as a major hurricane.

sea oat · #3 Postby **sea oat** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:01 pm

thank you for your reply opal and i agree whole heartedly. i think these guys do a fantastic job! i know it's going to be a major when it hits. i just want to know how "major"

Mister Popps · #4 Postby **Mister Popps** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:58 pm

sea oat wrote:Any input from the professionals would be greatly appreciated. I live in Ft Walton Beach, FL and am deciding when to evacuate. They have voluntary evacs for south of hwy 98 on the island. I live a bit north of there maybe 1 miles the way the crow flies. I've been through strong cat 3's, i.e. Opal and Eloise. I have not seen any real information about what strength they expect this thing to hit the coast.

Thank you in advance for any input.

Try this site:
http://www.floridadisaster.org/hurrican ... area.shtml

#5 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:08 pm

You need to leave where you are. If Ivan comes in as a Cat4, which is quite possible, your area would be in very bad shape.(I know the area well) My Mother lives in Niceville and I am trying to get her to fly out tomorrow to visit me in Houston, so far to no avail. I would not wait past tomorrow around noon to leave either. Roads may be jammed even by then. Ivan is huge and is going to strongly impact a large area of the Gulf Coast no matter where he landfalls. I would not be anywhere near the coast if I was anywhere in the cone.

dennis1x1 · #6 Postby **dennis1x1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:19 pm

based on this graphic and the known forecast of 120kts at 48 hrs and the expected landfall in about 60 hours one can trace the nhc forecast at landfall to be around a min cat-3...

one should note that this forecast is expectedly on the high end of the model prediction and based on the latest nhc model one could reasonably expect a range of 95-115mph at landfall...as forecast at this time by this model.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 30253I.gif

#7 Postby **KBBOCA** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:26 pm

I saw what I thought was an excellent piece of advice following hurricane Charley: "Always prepare for 1 category higher than forecast" -- thus if forecast to be a Cat 3, make your decisions and plan as if it's going to be a Cat 4.

I plan to keep that in mind for the future.

sea oat · #8 Postby **sea oat** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:30 pm

thank you all for your advice. especially vbhoutex. my mother like yours won't leave. she lives in a subdivision by the cemetary off beal parkway. we've weathered many storms but i think i'm gonna have to kick mom in the butt tomorrow and say "MOVE IT!"

mrcaptjbird · #9 Postby **mrcaptjbird** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:33 pm

Both sets of my grandparents lived/ Live on Pleasant St. by Memorial Cemetary. I know they are stubborn when they want to stay. Best of luck to you and your mother.

sea oat · #10 Postby **sea oat** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:36 pm

omg! my grandmother used to live on pleasant street. her name is nellie bicksler. she lives in south carolina now.

? 4 the Pros on Intesity at Landfall.

? 4 the Pros on Intesity at Landfall.

Re: ? 4 the Pros on Intesity at Landfall.

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