11pm NHC 160 mph track shift west to Mobile discussion

TropicalJen · #41 Postby **TropicalJen** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:49 pm

my biggest concern has shifted from ivan hitting to the inevitable storm we someday may get here in Pinellas that everyone that has been in the cone this year and years past will get more complacent than they already are. Mandatory evacuations are great when the storm misses you but in a scenerio like this with the unpredictability of storms, makes me certain that so many that finally woke up and prepared for our tampabay bubble to burst will sleep on the next one, you know the one that will put us back in the cone again....

nccoastalgirl · #42 Postby **nccoastalgirl** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:49 pm

tampastorm wrote:Not a problem, now pack up and RUN!!!!!!

Yes, please get ready and stay safe! And I love the "seagull" joke....gotta remember that one for the next time everyone in NC is flipping out...... Everyone in the watch area, heed the warnings and take care!

tampastorm · #43 Postby **tampastorm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:50 pm

Its a tough call. I hope there is a house to come back to, and that is not a joke. Once again good luck!

#44 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:52 pm

Do not focus on the point of landfall, errors on the future track may be large. All areas in the Hurricane Watch need to prepare.

Latest landfall forecast map:

Full size image at http://www.skeetobite.com/weather

Mello1 · #45 Postby **Mello1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:55 pm

tampastorm wrote:you sound like you are upset about that live in Tampa and you are upset because it shifted west.

What Kind Of IDIOTIC statement is that!!!!!!!!!! I just want to make sure no one on the W coast of FL is caught off guard. We have had more then enough of our share of FEAR!

If you have been following this thing all day, then the track west really should not be of any real surprise to you. Of course, Ivan could still take some bizarre turn, but at this time, it looks to be a north GOM event.

Mello1 · #46 Postby **Mello1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:58 pm

SkeetoBite wrote:Do not focus on the point of landfall, errors on the future track may be large. All areas in the Hurricane Watch need to prepare.

Latest landfall forecast map:

Full size image at http://www.skeetobite.com/weather

Good point and good job. Based on what the folks in the Caymans were saying, they got Cat 4/5 winds some 80 miles from the eye. Until this storm weakens significally, all in the hurricane cone range will be affected long before the eye reaches shore...

CYCLONE MIKE · #47 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:02 pm

Does anyone think the high pressure building in the western Gulf could have any impact on Ivan? Such as keeping him on a more westerly course starting tomorrow as he starts to bump against it. It just looks like it is surging east and pretty soon will be blocking him from going much further north.

#48 Postby **Windy** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:11 pm

You can't blame people for being nervous. I think everyone on the gulf seaboard east of Texas is really, really edgy right now. If they keep asking again and again if the storm is coming their way, be patient -- it doesn't mean they want it in their yard, they're just scared sh*tless that might end up there. And really, if you were stareing down the barrel of a Cat 5 monster like Ivan, wouldn't you be too?

#49 Postby **baygirl_1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:45 pm

Windy wrote:You can't blame people for being nervous. I think everyone on the gulf seaboard east of Texas is really, really edgy right now. If they keep asking again and again if the storm is coming their way, be patient -- it doesn't mean they want it in their yard, they're just scared sh*tless that might end up there. And really, if you were stareing down the barrel of a Cat 5 monster like Ivan, wouldn't you be too?

Absolutely, Windy! I've been on the phone all night with family and friends and everyone is scared. It's hard to wrap your brain around what this place is going to be like 48 or 72 hours from now. I can't even think of that because there's too much to be done between now and then! If I did think about it, I wouldn't be able to function, y'know?

And, skeetobite: the maps are really well done, but, I must say, I do not care for the content! That yellow line is just too darn close for comfort!!
:eek:

#50 Postby **KBBOCA** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:56 pm

Agreed. I think we should coin a new vocabulary term: fearcasting. All the people that twitch at a seeming shift in the movement, or every centimeter shift in models. I've been there, done that... and it's NOT -removed-. It's fearcasting, as in "Noooo...! I thought I was safe, could it possibly be headed back in my direction?!?!" Let's give folks on the West coast of FL or Central FL some slack. After all they've been through this past month, they have reason to fear and lament the possibility of another strike, even if it now seems highly improbable and thus to react emotionally to changes in track.

-removed- might be a real phenomenon with a Cat. 1 or 2 storm in the beginning of the season. But at this point with a Cat 5 monster that has already killed about 70 in the Caribbean and after 2 big and deadly US landfalling storms... I really doubt anyone sane enough to log onto a computer and type a message is -removed-. (Unless that is of course that the stress drives some folks over the edge of sanity....!)

Just my $0.02

KB

11pm NHC 160 mph track shift west to Mobile discussion

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