Hurricane Watch for New Orleans

stormtrackerFDK1 · #1 Postby **stormtrackerFDK1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:38 pm

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2004

...Eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan moving slowly away from
the western tip of Cuba...Hurricane Watch issued for northern Gulf
Coast...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Pinar del Rio...Havana...City of Havana...and the Isle of Youth.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Tulum to progreso.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward...including the Dry Tortugas.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast from east of Morgan City Louisiana
eastward to St. Marks Florida...including greater New Orleans
Louisiana.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 22.0 north...longitude 85.4 west or about 40 miles... 60
km...west-northwest of the western tip of Cuba.

Ivan is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. No significant change in strength
is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 100 miles...160 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

The minimum central pressure reported by hurricane hunter aircraft
was 914 mb...26.99 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely occurring over portions of the South Coast of
extreme western Cuba. The storm surge and waves should begin to
slowly diminish within the next few hours.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected in
association with Ivan.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...22.0 N... 85.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 914 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

Sean in New Orleans · #2 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:39 pm

Bob Breck just said that the new track by the NHC is to the left of the one at 5:00....good for Florida, he says, and not good for us...

#3 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:52 pm

Well it's west to Mobile Bay.

Francis Joseph · #4 Postby **Francis Joseph** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:10 pm

Steve Lyons on TWC just said that Ivan stayed south so long that it missed the system that was supposed to take it to the NE. Also, the trough ahead of Ivan is weak and pulling out, so it looks like Ivan will pick up steam as it heads possibly toward New Orleans. This gives folks along the coast less time to evacuate and the storm less time to weaken before landfall. Sounds like the nightmare scenario for New Orleans is definitely in play now.

Geoff Stormcloud · #5 Postby **Geoff Stormcloud** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:15 pm

Bob's tone of voice has changed drasticly since the 5pm broadcast. At 5 he seemed upbeat and almost confident that Ivan would stay east of NO. Well, he looked like he was going to a funeral at 9. His tone of voice was concerned....Very concerned.
If a cat 5 blast New Orleans directly from the south east the town is done. Man this sucks.

#6 Postby **HollynLA** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:17 pm

Bob is such a funny little guy. I really get a kick out of him. I didn't watch his 9pm broadcast, but tuned into Carl on Chan 4.

You're right though, Bob seemed optimistic at 5, sorry I missed the 9pm.

wxwatcher2 · #7 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:27 pm

Y'all just make sure you leave if they tell ya to evacuate.
New Orleans is a unique town and it takes a long time to move the people out.

A lot of you have never been in a hurricane before. Please believe me they are not anything to mess with. Gas up the car and get to a safe place.
It's an inconvienience but you will be alive.

Stay safe and hope the track moves more to the East!!

Nexus · #8 Postby **Nexus** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:35 pm

Check out these two informative graphics:

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/nolalevees_jpg.jpg

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/goingunder_jpg.jpg

As most of you know, a CAT 4/5 would literally flood out and destroy the city. Some even speculate that tens of thousands would die, and the city would have to be abandoned.

cccmachine · #9 Postby **cccmachine** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:39 pm

The nightmare is upon us.

HardCard · #10 Postby **HardCard** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:55 pm

Here... these are more prudent right now..

http://www.sixflagsneworleans.com/cat3.bmp
http://www.sixflagsneworleans.com/cat4.bmp
http://www.sixflagsneworleans.com/cat5.bmp

Enjoy~

Ivanova · #11 Postby **Ivanova** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:58 pm

"Garden of the world near the new city,
In the path of the hollow mountains:
It will be seized and plunged into the tub,
Forced to drink waters poisoned by sulfur."

Nostradamus X-49

Most think this "new city" is New York...
but, maybe not

btw... there is a Port Sulphur in the New Orleans
metro area.

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Hurricane Watch for New Orleans

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