HURRICANE WATCH-MORGAN CITY, LA TO ST. MARKS, FL

Website · #1 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:38 pm

Public: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TNT34.KNHC

Discussion: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... TNT44.KNHC

Landfall at Mobile.

AL Chili Pepper · #2 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:40 pm

Well....I hope that's got some bad data in it somewhere. Seriously.

Website · #3 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:42 pm

Oh and more bad news... still 120 kt(140 mph) just off SE LA Wednesday Evening.

WOW...

btsgmdad · #4 Postby **btsgmdad** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:44 pm

A source told me the FSU superensemble puts the storm very near New Orleans.

addictedfisher18 · #5 Postby **addictedfisher18** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:44 pm

it may get very bad for us, alot of folks are saying landfall around al/miss line, bc they think the turn to the ne with happen later in the track

#6 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:45 pm

Well the NHC says the FSU SE is just west of their track...which I doubt is New Orleans.

#7 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:55 pm

Well, the forecast is for MS/AL area

Ixolib · #8 Postby **Ixolib** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:55 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:Well the NHC says the FSU SE is just west of their track...which I doubt is New Orleans.

If no N.O., what's your opinion on where you think the FSU would place it?

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:55 pm

Ixolib wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:Well the NHC says the FSU SE is just west of their track...which I doubt is New Orleans.

If no N.O., what's your opinion on where you think the FSU would place it?

Probably clipping the tip of LA and then into MS.

jes · #10 Postby **jes** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:58 pm

Can someone please tell me that this is going to be a Cat 3 and not a 4 or 5. I made reservations at a Holiday Inn in Montgomery, but I really don't want to go. Also, is the storm going to hit us during the day. I don't have the energy to stay up all night on the hall floor like I did with Fredrick--was lots younger then. I posted last week about not having anyone to board my windows, but today I called Andy on call and they are doing it for me -- thank goodness. The only good I can see to come out of this whole thing is I'll probably get a new roof. One more thing -- even if its a cat 5 don't you think we'll live through it (I mean we won't get killed) as long as we are not in a flood area and we stay inside. Also, do I need to bring in the rod iron patio table? What about the large potted plants? Oh I forgot -- will the gas company turn off the gas to our houses during the storm. I'm not sure how to turn off the gas to the grill and the gas log fireplace. This really is not fun.

#11 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:01 pm

Yeah, what Brent said based on all the models I've seen. Of course, I have no ideas which models are used, and I imagine there are a lot more involved that the public can't access.

Website · #12 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:04 pm

jes wrote:Can someone please tell me that this is going to be a Cat 3 and not a 4 or 5. I made reservations at a Holiday Inn in Montgomery, but I really don't want to go. Also, is the storm going to hit us during the day. I don't have the energy to stay up all night on the hall floor like I did with Fredrick--was lots younger then. I posted last week about not having anyone to board my windows, but today I called Andy on call and they are doing it for me -- thank goodness. The only good I can see to come out of this whole thing is I'll probably get a new roof. One more thing -- even if its a cat 5 don't you think we'll live through it (I mean we won't get killed) as long as we are not in a flood area and we stay inside. Also, do I need to bring in the rod iron patio table? What about the large potted plants? Oh I forgot -- will the gas company turn off the gas to our houses during the storm. I'm not sure how to turn off the gas to the grill and the gas log fireplace. This really is not fun.

Likely Cat 3, POSSIBLE 4 though. In fact... I think there's a good chance at a low-end Cat 4.

Looks like a landfall Thursday Morning around Mobile, if the current track holds, probably around Noon. A hurricane is not a point though.

rtd2 · #13 Postby **rtd2** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:06 pm

morgan city why so far west?

HurryKane · #14 Postby **HurryKane** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:25 pm

Uncertainty + fat hurricane = wide warning swath.

SwampDawg · #15 Postby **SwampDawg** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:54 pm

rtd2 wrote:morgan city why so far west?

Because they are really not sure

#16 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:08 am

SwampDawg wrote:
rtd2 wrote:morgan city why so far west?

Because they are really not sure

Charley hit 70 miles south of where it was supposed to land.

I think they are being safe this time!

#17 Postby **WeatherNole** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:08 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:Well the NHC says the FSU SE is just west of their track...which I doubt is New Orleans.

True. (Trust me. Look at my user name.)

Try the MS / AL line as a cat 3 Thursday morning. I have it second-hand, but from a rock-solid source.

No matter what - it is still a model. Back on Friday it was taking dead aim on Apalachicola.

Do NOT make your plans based on a single computer model - especially when a major hurricane is involved. Be smart. Play it safe.

Mike

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JoanFlorida · #18 Postby **JoanFlorida** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:18 am

Hey Mike...aka WeatherNole...thanks for your input! What's the buzz in T'hassee? I have a daughter and son-in-law waiting for the word re: school closing, etc. Have they made those kinds of decisions yet locally, or are they waiting until tomorrow?

During Frances we evacuated from Melbourne to T'hassee and when the trop. winds came through there, many places lost power and totally shut-down...schools, work-places and even the Home Depot and Lowes were closed up tight! So...being that T'hassee was so cautious, what's the local word for this huge monster of a storm?

#19 Postby **WeatherNole** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:22 am

Since the watch was just hoisted, I'm guessing that the decisions will start being made early Tuesday. But, we are at the far eastern edge of the watch - and much more than 36 hours from being affected (in my opinion).

I'd guess that unless the forecast track continued moving west, there'll be some things shut down here on Wednesday and Thursday, but just how much I do not know.

Mike

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JoanFlorida · #20 Postby **JoanFlorida** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:28 am

Thanks for your quick reply! Guess I'll have to remain patient...whew...trying as it is!

Just want this all to be over (like everyone), but must wait until November, I s'pose!

HURRICANE WATCH-MORGAN CITY, LA TO ST. MARKS, FL

HURRICANE WATCH-MORGAN CITY, LA TO ST. MARKS, FL

True.

Well . .

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