evening ivan forecast... rightward shift

[Derek Ortt]

we have shifted back to the right as we may have had some bad 12Z upper air obs that went into the 12Z forecast

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

[gkrangers]

So right now you foresee the nightmare scenario?

[Rainband]

Good forecast. I still say cedar key

[hurricanedude]

and a more eastward shift may be waranted if this almost due north trend continues...and god forbid any NNE wobbles!!!

[LowMug]

...may have had some bad 12Z upper air obs that went into the 12Z forecast

ok...that needs to be explained...how is there bad upper air obs...and how do you shift 600+ miles for landfall in one forecast

I like it but I would like to know since up to this point I have had great confidence in your forecasts with Frances and Ivan.

[hurricanedude]

Mug...things change dude..constantly in weather...you should know that

[Wnghs2007]

Hey Derek What do you see for the North Georgia Area. I just wanted to know what your expertice Suggests. Thanks Buddy.

[Brent]

Your 72-hour position is 60 miles west of here as a Cat 2...

[LowMug]

Mug...things change dude..constantly in weather...you should know that

I do know that...but such a drastic change warrants an explanation and reasoning especially if I (we) are to have continued confidence in their forecasts. If I was a business subscribing to their forecast I would want to know why such a change in 10 hrs has taken place when the pattern has not changed that much.

[Derek Ortt]

the obs we had at 12Z showed that the 500mb heights were HIGHER with the weakness than they were with the hurricane, meaning that the height gradient between the two systems almost would act as a rudge. Sat imagery this afternoon called that into serious question.

also, our track is only about a 200 mile shift for 12 hours. I was not the forecaster writing this forecast, either tonight (I only did TD 11 today). However, based upon the new data that we have, this is likely the correct track to make and is consistent with all of our other forecasts, besides the shift this morning

[AL Chili Pepper]

Thank you sir, may we have another.

Lot's closer, but at least I'm on the good side now. That's something.

Reeeeeeal close to the NHC track now.

[hurricanedude]

Der....would not surprise me if it needs to be shifted more in coming hours...whatcha think?

[Sean in New Orleans]

Good news for New Orleans and a small sigh of relief as we watch....

[Derek Ortt]

we may see some minor tweaking in the next day or so.

we should have better data coverage now that we are in the GOM; thus, I expect these forecasts to be able to hone into an area tomorrow

[cind52]

we have shifted back to the right as we may have had some bad 12Z upper air obs that went into the 12Z forecast

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

Just looking at the forcast models and they put the storm at the mouth of the Mississippi River.

[brudeb]

I am almost directly across from Cedar key on the NE coast of FL. What would that mean for my area if it made landfall there?

[Derek Ortt]

Low Mug,

you have every right to be critical. It shows that you care in what we are attempting to do, and it shows that you are monitoring the situation closely enough to notice these things and are on top of the storm.

dont let your guard down though, this is still a significant threat to you and is not all that far from you, well within the margin of error

[AL Chili Pepper]

One more thing, Derek. Did any of those models have any of this bad data ingested into them?

[NFLnut]

You had me scared with the title of the thread. It appears that you have only shifted rightward AFTER landfall? Isn't the landfall point still about the same as your (NWHHC's) previous forecast?

[Deana Cuevas]

I haven't heard any Mets talking about the "right" turn? Clarify please. Does anyone know how far East this may go. I'm in Tampa and my nerves are SHOT!