Question for the pros

CFL · #1 Postby **CFL** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:34 pm

If Ivan made landfall as far west as New Orleans, how far east would you expect to have major damage and power outages? Im sure there may not be an exact answer to this but I'd like to hear your opinions. I have elderly parents in Pensacola near the Escambia Bay but don't live in a flood zone.

#2 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:38 pm

Ivan is a very large storm, on the order of Frances or even bigger. IF Ivan makes landfall as far west as New Orleans there would be signficant coastal flooding all along the FL coastline because of this. Just look at what Frances did in Tampa when she was just a tropical storm. There will also be significant rainfall from either the main rainshield or outer/feeder bands. Ivan is also expected to move very slowly once inland, which will only add to rainfall problems and flooding. Since the ground is pretty wet in FL from Frances, it really won't take much wind to uproot trees and knock over power lines.

CFL · #3 Postby **CFL** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:43 pm

Thanks for the info. I'm realizing now just how little sleep I got last night because I meant to state in my post that my parents do not want to evacuate because they are not in a flood zone. They haven't boarded up and have a large tree in their backyard that faces south, so I've also been a little bit worried about wind damage as well. We are leaving town but can't convince them to come with us.

CFLCaneWatcher · #4 Postby **CFLCaneWatcher** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:43 pm

You all make me nervous everytime you mention N.O.! I don't even live close. I just know that unless Ivan gets shears to hell to a weak 2 a NO hit would be catostropic. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

N.O. would be the absolute worst place that a major cane could strike in this country.

I pray that this will not happen.

#5 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:49 pm

The further east Ivan makes landfall, the worse the conditions will be in FL...I hope that's clear. Still, as large as Ivan is, there will still likely be wind damage and flooding along the entire eastern GOM coastline.

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:07 pm

well, considering you asked for a pro, I can answer that question. There is likely to be at least scattered damage anywhere in the NHC cone of uncertainty. The tropical storm force winds extend out hundreds of miles and with the likelyhood of tornados and flooding, nevermind surge damage and wind damage, there will be a very wide swath of impact.

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