Good Thing The Gulf Has Cooler Waters

canegrl04 · #1 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:43 pm

Otherwise we coud be looking at the most dangerous hurricane to ever enter the GOM. Can you imagine how strong Ivan could get before landfall if not for the current upwelling? :eek:

#2 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:46 pm

What upwelling are you referring to? Ivan is sloshing around the waters underneath him now, but that is obviously not affecting it's strength since it has deepened to 910 mb again. While waters in some parts of the Gulf are cooler (particularly as far east as the NHC had forecast Ivan yesterday), there is a very deep warm eddy in the north-central Gulf just a few degrees south of the LA/MS/AL borders. The NHC takes Ivan very close to this water, and any further west adjustment would put it right over this deep warm pool. The SST's are high in the entire central and E gulf except along the FL coastline (because of Frances) so if the storm moves quickly enough upwelling won't be an issue. The biggest issue w/ regards to strength is shear more than anything...as the Gulf can easily support a Cat 4 or 5.

ColdFront77 · #3 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:52 pm

The Gulf of Mexico waters are very warm.

Gulf of Mexico Water Temperatures

canegrl04 · #4 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:57 pm

The sst graph I saw yesterday showed cooler temps over most of the GOM.Somebody posted it here

wxwatcher2 · #5 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:14 pm

I think they were wrong. The Gulf is like bathwater and Ivan is entering the Gulf as we type these words.

WELCOME TO THE GULF OF MEXICO IVAN !!!!

#6 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:19 pm

High-res image:
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/hurr/04/ivan/iv ... erview.gif

Heat potential:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/d ... 4256ca.png

Another SST:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/d ... 5casst.png

#7 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:24 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:The Gulf of Mexico waters are very warm.

Gulf of Mexico Water Temperatures

good work by coldfront ensuring we have the correct numbers. at some point we may want to do something on the degrees of a compass...i have noticed a whole bunch of confusion on the points of the compass. keep up the good work.

canegrl04 · #8 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:26 pm

Why does NHC and Steve Lyons keep saying ivans going to weaken in the Gulf?

#9 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:40 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Why does NHC and Steve Lyons keep saying ivans going to weaken in the Gulf?

Shear! Thats what they say but shear is not a given as we have seen in the past. As far as cooler waters..i think you were referring to total oceanic heat. the surface waters are toasty but the depth of the warm water is not as deep as say the carribean and thus you less energy. I suggest you PM derek ortt, I am sure he could give you a oceanic heat 101 lesson in a paragraph or two. Or you can google it, plenty of lecture notes sitting out on the net.

canegrl04 · #10 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:47 pm

Thanks jlauderdale 8-)

Good Thing The Gulf Has Cooler Waters

Good Thing The Gulf Has Cooler Waters

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