What Catagory do you think Ivan will be at Landfall?

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rdcrds
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What Catagory do you think Ivan will be at Landfall?

#1 Postby rdcrds » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:22 pm

From all the things i read and tracks i see and also dats from models if Ivan goes to the Florida Panhandle and hits there i think it will be a low CAT 3 but most likely a strong 2.I do NOT see any way for it to stay a 4 at landfall or even a strong 3 due to shear and also colder water temps.

So all those who sy it will be a 4 i think you need to go back and read the data.
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#2 Postby Matthew5 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:23 pm

I don't think the shear will be that strong. With the water above 82 to 84 degrees. I say cat4 with winds of around 135 mph...
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#3 Postby patsmsg » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:23 pm

4 :(
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#4 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:24 pm

So are you saying he'll pull a Frances...??

Could happen...


I still think they're overdoing the shear a bit but we'll see in the next 3 days...
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#5 Postby Scorpion » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:24 pm

I dont see where you get that reasoning. Water temps are very warm, and NHC predicts very little shear. Bastardi predicts it will be a 4, as am I. I see little reason for it to be a 2.
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#6 Postby Matthew5 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:25 pm

I think you are forgeting a storm named Camille in 1969...That bombed in the Gulf!
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#7 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:26 pm

C4 to C5 145-160mph winds 200-210 guest
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#8 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:27 pm

The NHC actually is predicting some solid shear developing....


I still think around 135 mph, same as Hugo was...
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#9 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:28 pm

High-end 3 or Low-end 4. 125-135 mph.
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#10 Postby rdcrds » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:31 pm

I am tellig you that the water temps are much colder and the warm water temps you are talking about don't go down that deep.Plus the fact they are talking about a slow track when it gets near the coast i see it doing like Francis in a way and maybe even stall some when it gets there.On my local news they have it at 110 MPH when it hits the east part of Florida.
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#11 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:31 pm

NHC was predicting a Miami to Tampa landfall, Then Tampa to Fla Panhandel landfall to just FL Panhandel, now they as far West as NO LA.

So I don't think the NHC knows just how strong Ivan could be.
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#12 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:36 pm

ill say min 3.......115mph...could easily be lower however.
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#13 Postby mascpa » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:56 pm

Strong cat 3, possibly a weak cat 4.
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#14 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:19 pm

I don't put much faith in the NHC after the storms this season.First they said Florida landfall,kept insisting Ivan would cross overJamaica and Cuba.You should have heard Drudge last night raking Max Mayfield,and the NHC over the coals. Said its time we had alternatives to the NHC for hurricane tracking.

Cat 3-cat 4
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#15 Postby jj_frap » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:23 pm

The Gulf is very warm though... :grr:

I can see this storm being the most devastating since at least Andrew.
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#16 Postby HurricaneGirl » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:31 pm

Category 4
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