A more NORTH jog....

Stormtrack03 · #1 Postby **Stormtrack03** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:01 am

The last 3 frames on the floater loop shows a more north jog of Ivan:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Scorpion · #2 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:03 am

Can we please stop all these threads about wobbles? We already have a couple. Thanks!

HouTXmetro · #3 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:04 am

Great news for Louisiana at least

Stormtrack03 · #4 Postby **Stormtrack03** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:04 am

Scorpion wrote:Can we please stop all these threads about wobbles? We already have a couple. Thanks!

I don't think this is a wobble.

Josephine96 · #5 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:06 am

Cool your jets Scorpion.. we're all excited here :wink:

golter · #6 Postby **golter** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:06 am

I dont either (think its a wobble), and I dont mind threads about wobbles..

LilNoles2004 · #7 Postby **LilNoles2004** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:14 am

I surely don't mind any post with information in regard to Ivan. Right now, I think every wobble/drift/etc matters as to where Ivan's final destination will be.

MBryant · #8 Postby **MBryant** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:21 am

Can we get some sort of mutually agreeable definitions.

My proposal:

Wobbles - 1-6 frames or up to 3 hours
Trends - 7 frames to loop
Turns - 24 hours trnding in a given direction with a movement of at least 120 miles.

While each frame can be the beginning of either a wobble, trend or turn, the nature cannot be established until after the event has occurred.

Anybody else have an opinion?

Stormtrack03 · #9 Postby **Stormtrack03** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:23 am

MBryant wrote:Can we get some sort of mutually agreeable definitions.

My proposal:

Wobbles - 1-6 frames or up to 3 hours
Trends - 7 frames to loop
Turns - 24 hours trnding in a given direction with a movement of at least 120 miles.

While each frame can be the beginning of either a wobble, trend or turn, the nature cannot be established until after the event has occurred.

Anybody else have an opinion?

i don't think a proposal is necessary, I think we should read the storm as it goes.

Hyperstorm · #10 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:23 am

While each frame can be the beginning of either a wobble, trend or turn, the nature cannot be established until after the event has occurred. <<

A very good point.

#11 Postby **mascpa** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:23 am

Agree with Stormtrack03 ... the long anticipated turn to the north is underway. Obviously Ivan is not going due north yet but there is a much stronger northward component to his direction than there was just six hours ago.

MBryant · #12 Postby **MBryant** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:28 am

[/quote]
i don't think a proposal is necessary, I think we should read the storm as it goes.[/quote]

I'm not debating the reading of the storm, just trying to get us to all speak the same language.

#13 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:28 am

Stormtrack03 wrote:The last 3 frames on the floater loop shows a more north jog of Ivan:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

No it's actually moving NE to ENE because it's being picked
up by the FL trough.

OH I'm just kidding. Click on the link below and you can see it's still NW. I'm afraid some of you are going to have a heart attack stressing out about every satellite loop update.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

kevin · #14 Postby **kevin** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:28 am

Hyperstorm.. you didn't just have a bizzare out of body experience, I got on the same computer as you, and actually thought I had logged in. Everyone, the post above wasn't from hyperstorm.. we just go to the same college.

cape_escape · #15 Postby **cape_escape** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:32 am

Stormcenter wrote:
Stormtrack03 wrote:The last 3 frames on the floater loop shows a more north jog of Ivan:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

No it's actually moving NE to ENE because it's being picked
up by the FL trough.

OH I'm just kidding. Click on the link below and you can see it's still NW. I'm afraid some of you are going to have a heart attack stressing out about every satellite loop update.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That wasn't funny Stormcenter! I about had a heart attack...lol

rtd2 · #16 Postby **rtd2** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:54 am

Wobbles - 1-6 frames or up to 3 hours
Trends - 7 frames to loop
Turns - 24 hours trnding in a given direction with a movement of at least 120 miles.

While each frame can be the beginning of either a wobble, trend or turn, the nature cannot be established until after the event has occurred.

Anybody else have an opinion?

Yes I agree with your thoughts here.... But who knows kow many post is created by every wobble!

kevin · #17 Postby **kevin** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:56 am

Significant shift east in the 5PM advisory? With the current NW to NNW motion... I can't be sure. I do believe it will pass closer to Cuba than the 11AM track shows. This is getting more and more dangerous to the Panhandle.. and yes, by extrapolation the big bend.

heel · #18 Postby **heel** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:58 am

Kevin, where are you located?

kevin · #19 Postby **kevin** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:00 pm

Ocala Florida, I would only get something in the unlikely event it makes landfall in the big bend area.

mf_dolphin · #20 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 12:00 pm

I wouldn't expect any significant change at the 5PM advisory. The current NHC track is still east of the bulk of the guidance. Ivan would have to be significantly east of the forecast position at 5 to warrant a shift east. JMHO

A more NORTH jog....

A more NORTH jog....

I don't mind..

Re: A more NORTH jog....

Re: A more NORTH jog....

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