NHC 48 Hour Forecasts Can Be Extremely Uncertain

[CalmBeforeStorm]

This from Friday at 11:00


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/di ... .033.shtml?

"THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
10 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN TOO...AND
THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS STILL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST"

Now this from today;

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt4.html

On Friday the NHC had "high confidence" in a 48 hour forecast that
brought the storm into central cuba at 80.2. Today they have the storm
missing Cuba completely.

Any way you cut it this was a blown forecast with neither the models
nor the NHC picking up on the ridge which built and drove Ivan
much further west then anticipated. This should be a reminder that even
48 hour forecasts are extremely uncertain.

[CaptinCrunch]

Ivan is controling his own path, the NHC and models have done nothing but chase Ivan ever since hitting Gernada, Ivan will NOT hit another land mass until he make landfall in the US.

As of right now anywhere between Corpus Christi TX, and Mobil AL. will be the Targeted area.

Ivan will continue to go between being a Strong Cat 4 and Cat 5 Hurricane until landfall.

[Josephine96]

I'd go between New Orleans and Tampa.. Yes I said TAMPA..

We are not out of the woods quite yet here.,. even though it looks that way

[feederband]

If I had to say where he's going. My best estimates will be ask me Friday because I don't think anyone has a clue except Ivan....

[Josephine96]

Ivan's the only 1 that knows

[golter]

Captian:

Ivan will hit Cuba, at least some portion of the eye will cross the Island. Corpus??? Seems a bit extreme. NOLA to Tampa is more realistic.

[vortex100]

To say that this storm has not behaved as planned is an understatement. The new Canadian model (12Z) now brings Ivan into the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday! The 12Z ETA plows the storm into southeastern Louisiana. It just depends how the system reacts to the upper low in the Tennessee valley and the upper level trough extending southwestward from the low into the northwestern GOM. The southern end of that trough is awfully weak and may not catch the storm and drive it northward as quickly as the models are indicating.

[Josephine96]

New Orleans to Tampa is what I said

[tronbunny]

If I had to say where he's going. My best estimates will be ask me Friday because I don't think anyone has a clue except Ivan....

Best "forecast" yet.
I give up!
I no longer wish to have a job as a met!

[Weatherboy1]

To say that this storm has not behaved as planned is an understatement. The new Canadian model (12Z) now brings Ivan into the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday! The 12Z ETA plows the storm into southeastern Louisiana. It just depends how the system reacts to the upper low in the Tennessee valley and the upper level trough extending southwestward from the low into the northwestern GOM. The southern end of that trough is awfully weak and may not catch the storm and drive it northward as quickly as the models are indicating.

In regards to your post here, I had a question about that ULL/trough. If I remember correctly, yesterday and the day before the models were indicating that this low would dip down, then quickly be ejected NE-ward over a building SW Atlantic ridge. But its forward progression seems to be slowing down quite a bit and the movement has been E, not NE over the past 24 hours. Plus, there seems to be some energy coming down into the base of that trough. Not saying it won't get "kicked out" soon. But I'm wondering if my amateur's eyes aren't showing that the ejection is not happening yet.