New Ivan Forecast... New Orleans

[Stormtrack03]

I'll disagree with the shift, I still say Florida panhandle espicially with the new 11 AM NHC guidance.

[Derek Ortt]

Stewart has been by far the farthest to the right with the NHC forecasts. He also had the one that split the Peninsula.

I cannot see his synoptic reasoning at all. The low-pressure of the hurricane still has relative ridging over the storm and this is based upon the 500mb obs

[Stormcenter]

Personally I see Ivan going into
the MS/AL coastline. The NHC
discussion at 11am really DOES
NOT make me feel like they got a
good handle on Ivan.
I have a feeling Ivan
will come TOO Close for comfort
to New Orleans before veering to
the NNE to the MS/AL coastline or
maybe the FL Western Fl. panhandle.
IMO.

[tallbunch]

I'm sticking with my original perdiction from almost 2 weeks ago. Panama City

[SouthernWx]

Derek and I aren't far apart on forecast tracks....I'm expecting Ivan to pass near the Mouth of the Mississippi, then northward into the Mississippi coast near Biloxi...passing about 60 miles east of New Orleans.

Prognostic reasoning? In addition to model support, I simply don't believe a hurricane as large and intense as Ivan will recurve as sharply as NHC is forecasting......IMO it will be similar to Hugo's recurvature...a gentle, rolling turn up to the north then northeast.

This could be a very bad hit...because I'm forecasting 130 kts as Ivan approaches the Mouth of the Mississippi (Boothville-Buras area of SE LA), and 120 kts...possibly even 125 kts at landfall between Pascagoula and the MS/ LA border. That warm eddy with high oceanic heat content located offshore the Gulf coast from south of Destin WSW to south of Grand Isle scares the daylights out of me.

I know it's only happened once in 150 years (Camille), but if Ivan reaches 150-155 kts in the Yucatan Channel/ SE GOM....a landfalling cat-5 in SE Louisiana or Mississippi isn't out of the question.

[Lindaloo]

Gosh Perry, a landfall between Pascagoula and the MS/AL border puts me right in the eyewall.

[Stormcenter]

I'll disagree with the shift, I still say Florida panhandle espicially with the new 11 AM NHC guidance.

You are talking about the same NHC guidance that had Ivan hitting Jamaica ,Grenada and central Cuba, right?
I'm sorry but they are NOT doing a good job with Ivan just
in there 24 hour out forecasts. I hope they at least get the shear
part right and he DOESN'T come in as a Cat.5

[Stormtrack03]

I hope you aren't saying that you dont trust NHC on this storm, they are the professionals. As long as they keep the track on the eastern side of the model guidance there is no reason to specualte that it will go way westward as some ppl have said here.

[bfez1]

Witha NW track now I am feeling a little better about it. Just hope this motion holds.

[Air Force Met]

here's the graphic

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

stacy wrote the 11 a.m. that should say enough about why there has been a shift to the east

Does he stick with the GFS and GFDL solutions usually? Don't understand the 11am discussion. IT states the obvious about the trough...which is where the models put it...but the models also take it out by tomorrow and put a high there. NOt understanding why he has it moving NNE after 48 hours.

Read, Yoda's post above.

Yoda's post is just quoting the discussion. It is the discussion...or his post (because it is an exact quote) that doesn't make sense to me and doesn't explain what they are doing. They are making a 2-3 day forecast based on what is being observed now...and not talking about what is forecasted to change. They mention the high over tx moving east...which will reinforce the ridge to the east...but don't include that in the actual track...and ignore the model guidance that does. That is why I was asking what he thought the reasons behind that were.

[Stormcenter]

I hope you aren't saying that you dont trust NHC on this storm, they are the professionals. As long as they keep the track on the eastern side of the model guidance there is no reason to specualte that it will go way westward as some ppl have said here.

Stormtrack03 I was just stating that "facts". The NHC has not done a good job with Ivan they would the first to admit that. It's NOT all their fault we are talking about a Cat.5 hurricane not a Bonnie here. I DO NOT believe this will be a threat any further west than New Orleans.

[Huckster]

I hope you aren't saying that you dont trust NHC on this storm, they are the professionals. As long as they keep the track on the eastern side of the model guidance there is no reason to specualte that it will go way westward as some ppl have said here.

There's nothing wrong with speculating about it going westward, no, not even about it going way westward. A few days ago one of the TPC tracks had this thing cutting across the peninsula of Florida. Now they have it into the western Panhandle. No one should "bash" them, but some speculation (without wild conspiracy theories) is definitely reasoned and not with no reason. I normally would not question their forecast, but this is getting too close to me and their margin of error has been way to large for comfort.

[yoda]

Oops, yeah that's the exact words from the 11 AM discussion...

[SouthernWx]

Gosh Perry, a landfall between Pascagoula and the MS/AL border puts me right in the eyewall.

Linda, I'm extremely worried about the coast between Mobile and New Orleans. NHC has consistently been forecasting too far to the right...since Ivan was well east of the Windwards.

Here's a secret I use in forecasting (in addition to model guidance and climatology)...and it's why I was so close to Frances's landfall just north of PBI (and Isabel's landfall in NC last year). I plot the NHC 72, 96, and 120 hour forecast positions on a hurricane chart...and note their bias as the hurricane tracks in relation them. In other words, Frances tracked just to the south and west of the NHC forecast positions.

Ivan has tracked much farther south and west of the NHC forecast positions (granted the error margin becomes less as you get within 72 hours)...but I still feel the same as yesterday evening....the coast west of Pensacola to Slidell is in deep trouble...possibly as far west as New Orleans and Grand Isle.

Something else that is unnerving to me....the synoptic pattern right now is very similar to the setup on August 15th, 1969. A ridge of high pressure offshore the east coast with a developing trough over the central plains....and the southerly jet in between over the western GOM provided Camille excellent outflow...just as I suspicion will happen with Ivan (why I'm forecasting 130 kts near Buras).

Hurricane Camille also tracked to the left of NHC forecast guidance across the GOM (and Camille's landfall progged along the Florida panhandle ended up being just west of Gulfport, MS).

[HollynLA]

Witha NW track now I am feeling a little better about it. Just hope this motion holds.

Not quite sure why you say this? If it kept the WNW motion, it would end up in Mexico eventually. In order to effect the northern gulf states, it would have to make a NW then N motion. So for me, the NW motion (whether temp or perm) does nothing for my sense of security. Right now, that would take a due South trend

[Nimbus]

The official forecast already acknowledged that the shear would lessen in 24 hours so obviously the current short wave trough is expected to be out of the picture by then.

The high over Texas looks like it will bridge with the subtropical ridge in the water vapor imagery. Near the bridge the ridge will be weak for a while but there is a real danger to New Orleans as the ridge starts to build in again.

I hope by five they straighten out the forecast.

[Air Force Met]

I hope you aren't saying that you dont trust NHC on this storm, they are the professionals. As long as they keep the track on the eastern side of the model guidance there is no reason to specualte that it will go way westward as some ppl have said here.

Go back and look at where they have forecasted it all along. They have constantly been too far right. I too am a professional. They had this thing going into the Bahamas last week. Was I wrong then to say they were wrong? Don't think so. I get paid by the government to forecast hurricanes too...just for the DOD. I can speculate if I want

Spelling edit

[Lindaloo]

Thanks for the analysis Perry. I have been through enough of these (ONE CAT 5) but nonetheless some strong ones, to prepare for the worst. You can only do so much to protect property in the event of a CAT5. All you can do is pray and get out of his/her way. I have had a fear of another Camille type storm here on the MS Gulf Coast as well.

[Air Force Met]

The official forecast already acknowledged that the shear would lessen in 24 hours so obviously the current short wave trough is expected to be out of the picture by then.

The high over Texas looks like it will bridge with the subtropical ridge in the water vapor imagery. Near the bridge the ridge will be weak for a while but there is a real danger to New Orleans as the ridge starts to build in again.

I hope by five they straighten out the forecast.

Exactly. I don't understand the NNE bend after 48 with a ridge building back in to the north.

[Lindaloo]

Witha NW track now I am feeling a little better about it. Just hope this motion holds.

Bon! Keep your guard up girlfriend!