Latest GFDL scary for New Orleans

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logybogy

Latest GFDL scary for New Orleans

#1 Postby logybogy » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:04 am

It really takes it far west into the central gulf. If it doesn't make that curve to the northeast at the very end, New Orleans would get nailed pretty badly.

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#2 Postby FritzPaul » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:23 am

Looks like another westward shift from the NHC, since their beloved GFDL has gone west.
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#3 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:25 am

NHC hasn't shifted as much as the models. I'm not sure why but I guess they have their reasons.
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#4 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:25 am

they typically split the difference between the ukmet and gfdl i notice.
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#5 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:26 am

Unbelievable, the westward march continues :eek: .
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dennis1x1

#6 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:28 am

not as scary as the latest ukmet.....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
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#7 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:29 am

dennis1x1 wrote:they typically split the difference between the ukmet and gfdl i notice.

If that's the case, there will probably be a pretty good shift to the west since both the GFDL and UKMET are west of the projected path, in another state.
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dennis1x1

#8 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:30 am

and the ukmet just shifted much further.....no question the 5am advisory will be shifted.........and new orleans officials will have a huge decision on their hands in the morning.
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#9 Postby LSUChamps0002 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:30 am

Man o man o man o man.

Got a room tonight about 350 miles north of here (by new orleans).

Can i wishcast this away?
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#10 Postby WeatherNLU » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:31 am

Good night, look at the models shift AGAIN!

OK, I might have to stay up until 4AM now.
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#11 Postby FritzPaul » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:33 am

Well looks like we'll be further into the cone (oops: triangle) of uncertainty later today.
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#12 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:33 am

This is looking real bad for New Orleans, and I'm even becoming more concerned here in Lafayette since the storm is so large and will affect a BROAD area.
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#13 Postby CFL » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:34 am

Wow! Does anyone have any idea how far west this could shift? No offense to anyone here, but I'm hoping it will just shift right on out of my neighborhood. I'm north of Pensacola and couldn't get any plywood today.
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#14 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:35 am

They've been very conservative with their west shifts so I doubt it will shift much. They take baby steps. lol
It's kinda hard to believe that just a few days ago the projected path pointed toward the Miami area and even stretched to the other side of Florida and now look at it.....and the models!
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#15 Postby FritzPaul » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:36 am

WeatherNLU wrote:Good night, look at the models shift AGAIN!

OK, I might have to stay up until 4AM now.


I know how you feel. :sleeping: :double: :sleeping:
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#16 Postby WeatherNLU » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:37 am

FritzPaul wrote:
WeatherNLU wrote:Good night, look at the models shift AGAIN!

OK, I might have to stay up until 4AM now.


I know how you feel. :sleeping: :double: :sleeping:


Where are you in the city Fritz?
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Anonymous

#17 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:38 am

LSUChamps0002 wrote:Man o man o man o man.

Got a room tonight about 350 miles north of here (by new orleans).

Can i wishcast this away?



Yep Champs, you should review your hurricane plan right now then get ready to move out.

I have a really BAD feeling this monster will make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi, Texas, and New Orleans. Sure it'll move northwest over time, but forget that recurve, it just aint gonna happen. Florida, you can breathe again, this thing is headed for the central Gulf Coast or farther west.
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dennis1x1

#18 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:39 am

theyve been somewhat conservative but seem to stay within 40 miles of ukmet/gfdl consensus

ill guess they shift the black line to at least mobile at 5am.

the biggest thing is the trajectory.....no way can new orleans sit by and hope for a last minute curve with the way this storm has behaved in relation to the models..
Last edited by dennis1x1 on Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#19 Postby FritzPaul » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:39 am

Castle manor in NOE.
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#20 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:39 am

southerngale wrote:They've been very conservative with their west shifts so I doubt it will shift much. They take baby steps. lol
It's kinda hard to believe that just a few days ago the projected path pointed toward the Miami area and even stretched to the other side of Florida and now look at it.....and the models!


SG, this should make us all remember that in the future, take the NHC 5 day with a big grain of salt.
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