Latest GFDL scary for New Orleans

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
logybogy

Latest GFDL scary for New Orleans

#1 Postby logybogy » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:04 am

It really takes it far west into the central gulf. If it doesn't make that curve to the northeast at the very end, New Orleans would get nailed pretty badly.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
FritzPaul
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 468
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:09 pm
Location: Pensacola, FL
Contact:
Contact FritzPaul

#2 Postby FritzPaul » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:23 am

Looks like another westward shift from the NHC, since their beloved GFDL has gone west.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#3 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:25 am

NHC hasn't shifted as much as the models. I'm not sure why but I guess they have their reasons.
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros
Top
dennis1x1

#4 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:25 am

they typically split the difference between the ukmet and gfdl i notice.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#5 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:26 am

Unbelievable, the westward march continues :eek: .
0 likes   
Top
dennis1x1

#6 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:28 am

not as scary as the latest ukmet.....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#7 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:29 am

dennis1x1 wrote:they typically split the difference between the ukmet and gfdl i notice.

If that's the case, there will probably be a pretty good shift to the west since both the GFDL and UKMET are west of the projected path, in another state.
0 likes   
Top
dennis1x1

#8 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:30 am

and the ukmet just shifted much further.....no question the 5am advisory will be shifted.........and new orleans officials will have a huge decision on their hands in the morning.
0 likes   
Top
LSUChamps0002
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 59
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 11:00 pm
Location: Metairie, LA

#9 Postby LSUChamps0002 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:30 am

Man o man o man o man.

Got a room tonight about 350 miles north of here (by new orleans).

Can i wishcast this away?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WeatherNLU
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 218
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:50 pm

#10 Postby WeatherNLU » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:31 am

Good night, look at the models shift AGAIN!

OK, I might have to stay up until 4AM now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
FritzPaul
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 468
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:09 pm
Location: Pensacola, FL
Contact:
Contact FritzPaul

#11 Postby FritzPaul » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:33 am

Well looks like we'll be further into the cone (oops: triangle) of uncertainty later today.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#12 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:33 am

This is looking real bad for New Orleans, and I'm even becoming more concerned here in Lafayette since the storm is so large and will affect a BROAD area.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CFL
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 352
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:12 pm
Location: Alabama

#13 Postby CFL » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:34 am

Wow! Does anyone have any idea how far west this could shift? No offense to anyone here, but I'm hoping it will just shift right on out of my neighborhood. I'm north of Pensacola and couldn't get any plywood today.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

#14 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:35 am

They've been very conservative with their west shifts so I doubt it will shift much. They take baby steps. lol
It's kinda hard to believe that just a few days ago the projected path pointed toward the Miami area and even stretched to the other side of Florida and now look at it.....and the models!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
FritzPaul
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 468
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:09 pm
Location: Pensacola, FL
Contact:
Contact FritzPaul

#15 Postby FritzPaul » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:36 am

WeatherNLU wrote:Good night, look at the models shift AGAIN!

OK, I might have to stay up until 4AM now.


I know how you feel. :sleeping: :double: :sleeping:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WeatherNLU
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 218
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:50 pm

#16 Postby WeatherNLU » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:37 am

FritzPaul wrote:
WeatherNLU wrote:Good night, look at the models shift AGAIN!

OK, I might have to stay up until 4AM now.


I know how you feel. :sleeping: :double: :sleeping:


Where are you in the city Fritz?
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#17 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:38 am

LSUChamps0002 wrote:Man o man o man o man.

Got a room tonight about 350 miles north of here (by new orleans).

Can i wishcast this away?



Yep Champs, you should review your hurricane plan right now then get ready to move out.

I have a really BAD feeling this monster will make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi, Texas, and New Orleans. Sure it'll move northwest over time, but forget that recurve, it just aint gonna happen. Florida, you can breathe again, this thing is headed for the central Gulf Coast or farther west.
0 likes   
Top
dennis1x1

#18 Postby dennis1x1 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:39 am

theyve been somewhat conservative but seem to stay within 40 miles of ukmet/gfdl consensus

ill guess they shift the black line to at least mobile at 5am.

the biggest thing is the trajectory.....no way can new orleans sit by and hope for a last minute curve with the way this storm has behaved in relation to the models..
Last edited by dennis1x1 on Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
FritzPaul
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 468
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:09 pm
Location: Pensacola, FL
Contact:
Contact FritzPaul

#19 Postby FritzPaul » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:39 am

Castle manor in NOE.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5280
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

#20 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:39 am

southerngale wrote:They've been very conservative with their west shifts so I doubt it will shift much. They take baby steps. lol
It's kinda hard to believe that just a few days ago the projected path pointed toward the Miami area and even stretched to the other side of Florida and now look at it.....and the models!


SG, this should make us all remember that in the future, take the NHC 5 day with a big grain of salt.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: riapal and 80 guests