What I am seeing.....

[Ajarens]

I am a true definition of an amateur, but 5 days out I called Frances to land in Ft. Pierce. Yes, pretty lucky for my first ever prediction in life, and on this board.

Anyways, here is my take on what I see right now. Ivan is in a frontline civil war battle. Ivan's NW flow stalls, advances.. stalls, advances. The pocket of dry air does the same. However, the pocket is closing, and he is starting to take on that change of direction look. NE flow is racing off to the East now when it was pretty much shooting north as he continued WNW. His convection area to his NW has also shrunk in terms of distance from the COC. He is starting to feel a little wedged

I see him at 20.5 and just before 85 making a turn to the NW and quickly North (not a very gradual turn). I see no reason this storm makes it west of Mobile. I am calling a landfall at Keaton Beach, FL

So without all your glamour meteorology terms, that is my story and I am sticking to it.

BTW.. Hey Gruden... Sign McCardell already!

[tampastorm]

Where is Keaton beach?

[Ajarens]

http://www.flausa.com/destinations/state-2.pdf

[tampastorm]

I still think you are to far NW .

[Ajarens]

Too far NW? You mean NE?

[tampastorm]

No, NW , with the high retreating and the troughs coming down. I think alot of ppl are going to be caught off guard how far east Ivan ends up.

[gatorbabe79]

Gruden's an idiot if he doesn't sign Keenan. He and Jimmy Smith used to be called Thunder and Lightning when they played for the Jags!

[Sean in New Orleans]

You may be wrong this time--alot of things will be changing with steering patterns before Ivan gets there---Ivan isn't even in the Gulf, yet. You're too far East. I'm thinking the Western Panhandle and that's pushing east by most opinions.

[Ajarens]

That is what makes this board great.. opinions. Longitude he is not a country mile for this to happen. Also, I recall Charley was a pretty intense storm and he sure did not need to have a slow gradual turn NE. I respect yours and everyone's view on this board. Lets see how this plays out.

[Stormcenter]

[quote="tampastorm"]No, NW , with the high retreating and the troughs coming down. I think alot of ppl are going to be caught off guard how far east Ivan ends up.[/quote}

Wow you should be hoping he's right not wrong. Didn't you guys have enough with Charly? I hope the storm comes NO WHERE near me.

[tampastorm]

Trust me I want nothing to do with this storm. I am just looking at the maps and see the weakness where Ivan can sneak to the NE. Put it this way Frances came through with 70 MPH winds and scared me half to death. Cat 3,4,5 I am way out of here!