What are the best and worst scenarios for the Yucatan?

[Possum Trot]

The reason I ask is that I just read a post on stormcaribe describing little in the way of preparation for Ivan in Cancun, and that most of the 350,000 people that live there reside in "Gilligan Island" style houses. The poster is not aware of any plans to evacuate the hotel district which is on a spit of sand that surrounds the lagoon. Rains have begun and there is some flooding in the downtown area. His power has gone out and come back on.

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/mexico.shtml

[Brent]

Passing east of the Yucatan is the best case scenario. A direct hit on Cozumel would have the northern eyewall over Cancun. A major catastrophe. The first scenario is much more likely thankfully.

[Possum Trot]

I guess my question was not as specific as I intended. I know that if Ivan makes land fall on the Yucatan, there is likely to be 20-25 foot storm surge. Will there be storm surge if Ivan follows the NHC forecast path (which seems to be about as far East as he's going to go at this point)? Will the Yucatan get hurricane force winds if Ivan follows the NHC forecast path?

[Possum Trot]

Unsure, disinterest... hmmm?

[Brent]

I guess my question was not as specific as I intended. I know that if Ivan makes land fall on the Yucatan, there is likely to be 20-25 foot storm surge. Will there be storm surge if Ivan follows the NHC forecast path (which seems to be about as far East as he's going to go at this point)? Will the Yucatan get hurricane force winds if Ivan follows the NHC forecast path?

On the surge, as long as it passes east, no. They would have an offshore flow.

Wind... probably not, but if it deviates to the left, they could.