Ivan Advisories

[Scorpion]

If a Cat 4/5 were to hit, you could say goodbye to anything 10 ft above sea level or lower. Thats not factoring in the winds...

[rainstorm]

where did he say it would hit?

[seannymac]

How do you see a north turn?

[Hurrilurker]

Then they should enlarge the cone to include places farther west.

That brings up a pet peeve of mine with the NHC forecast. Their cone is a fixed size. I think they should have a variable-sized cone to reflect more or less uncertain conditions. Doesn't that make sense? I also think they should lose the centerline on those official tracks because people become obsessed with it and don't even look at the cone.

[drezee]

396
URNT12 KNHC 130142
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/0142Z
B. 19 DEG 33 MIN N
82 DEG 57 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2371 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 129 DEG 146 KT
G. 034 DEG 019 NM
H. 917 MB
I. 10 C/ 3096 M
J. 18 C/ 3104 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. 0.5/3 NM
P. AF977 2709A IVAN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 155 KT NW QUAD 2339Z. LIGHTNING AND HAIL
ENCOUNTERED IN NE EYEWALL.

[canegrl04]

Yeah,I bet Ivan could beat the crap out of Javier

[Lindaloo]

Somebody needs to have Mr. Gray call Carrie Duncan at Wlox in Biloxi and tell her because she said at 6:00pm she was only putting in 30% chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday because we shouldn't be bothered at all with Ivan....

Can you believe that?

Par for the course of WLOX

Nothing new coming from her. She is still wet behind the ears!

[btsgmdad]

The next few hours should be interesting. How far will he fall?

[HurryKane]

Yeah,I bet Ivan could beat the crap out of Javier

Hurricane Deathmatch! Now that would be something to see.

[canegrl04]

155kts= 178mph That would put Ivan's max sustained at around 160mph

[bbadon]

He expected this storm to expand TS force winds 200 miles from the center and hurrcane force winds 100 miles from the center. Thats 400 miles across

[Scorpion]

Wait, you mean 164 kt FL winds now??

[HurryKane]

Somebody needs to have Mr. Gray call Carrie Duncan at Wlox in Biloxi and tell her because she said at 6:00pm she was only putting in 30% chance of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday because we shouldn't be bothered at all with Ivan....

Can you believe that?

Par for the course of WLOX

Nothing new coming from her. She is still wet behind the ears!

I knew her when she was a wee thing...and I'm not THAT old yet, so yes, I agree. Sometimes she really doesn't seem to have a handle on the big picture.

[Matthew5]

Holy lighting in Hail in the eye!!! It has also went up a millibars.

[drezee]

Movement 288

[Scorpion]

Wait, it weakened. Wasnt it 916 MB before?

[Saitex]

Storm IVAN: Observed By AF #977
Storm #09 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 155KT (178.25mph 287.06km/h) In NW Quadrant At 2339Z
Estimated Surface Winds 139.5KT (160.42mph 258.35km/h) *
Misc Remarks: LIGHTNING AND HAIL ENCOUNTERED IN NE EYEWALL.;
Date/Time of Recon Report: Sunday, September 12, 2004 21:42:00 (Mon, 13 Sep 2004 01:42:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 19° 33' N 82° 57' W (19.5.5°N 82.10°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2371m (Normal: 3011)
Maximum Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
No Bearing From Center To Estimated Surface Winds Was Measured
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 146KT (167.9mph 270.39km/h) From 129°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 019nm (21.8 miles) From Center At Bearing 034°
Minimum pressure: 917mb (27.08in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular C28
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.5nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 3nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[Guest]

160 mph surface wind

[bfez1]

Did he say where he expected Ivan to make landfall?

[FritzPaul]

How much longer will it be before Fidel won't let us do recon?