Ivan Advisories

[x-y-no]

I was talking about what air force said, sorry should have elaborated

There was a typhoon a couple of years ago that was annular...and had an eye almost 120 miles in diameter. It was HUUUGE.

[/quote]

Yeah - I realized that after the fact and edited to correct myself ...

This communicating by typing at each other is tough sometimes .

[Francis Joseph]

I have heard that the worst case scenario for New Orleans would be a track up the Mississippi river because a strong hurricane would displace so much water out of the river that the flooding would be massive when combined with the storm surge.

[marc21688]

haha..yea i agree

[canegrl04]

Joe Bastardi just said on Fox news that Ivan could hit from 125mph to 150mph.Sounds like nobody really knows how strong Ivan can get in the GOM

[wabbitoid]

I think that right now if you live around New Orleans you need to make sure that all of those valuable possessions you wouldn't want to live without -- pictures, valuables, etc -- are in one place. Make sure your car has plenty of gas. And pay attention to what's happening, and mentally prepare yourself to leave it all behind.

That's all, but it's a lot.

[dennis1x1]

i would change joes range to 100-140....but you are right...noone could possibly know.

[Ripopgodazippa]

Its out...

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

[skysummit]

Don't forget to take pictures of all your belongings. Open up all your cabinets and take pictures of everything you possibly can.

[B-Bear]

WOrst case is a track from the se and ese of NO. THis won't happen in this case. Obviously...the best track is east of them.

I'm not meaning to challenge your professional experience, but I wanted to point out that I had read that a category 4/5 hurricane making landfall just to the east of N.O. was the worst case scenario because it would cause the greatest storm surge, possibly causing the levees around Lake Ponchatrain to fail and putting parts of N.O. under as much as 25 feet of water.

[zoeyann]

Not getting involved in the is it or isn't it going to LA conversation. I just wanted to point out that if a storm of this magnitude were to go to LA please do not leave Terrebonne and Lafouche Parishes out of the discussion. These areas are nothing but Marsh and bayou. Anything (even tropical storms) hitting anywhere from Morgan City to NO causes unimaginable problems in these areas because so much of the area is eroding

[LCfromFL]

Ivan goes wherever the bloody hell he wants to.

My thoughts exactly.

BTW Innotech, there's a construction company here in Barbados called Innotech. (Just thought you should know that)

Innotech is the name of that company is one of my favorite movies - Office Space. As a consultant, I find The Bob's particularly funny. I live that move!

[canegrl04]

The guy on TWC tonight said expect " a little" strengthening.I was wondering how he could say that about Ivan.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's always good to be prepared and have a plan...let's just wait and see what the actual track is tomorrow at this time. The NHC (the official track) is still to the Panhandle of Florida....

[B-Bear]

Worst case is a track from the se and ese of NO. THis won't happen in this case. Obviously...the best track is east of them.

True AF, but even a landfall well to the east can cause significant problems in areas of metro New Orleans, particularly around Lake Pontchartrain. When Georges came ashore in Mississippi in '98, there was a lot of wave and water damage along the south shore. Homes and businesses had extensive damage due to the water pushed in from the E, NE and N winds on the storm's weak side.

Yes, the article I read said that the reason a storm landfalling just to the east would be so bad is because it would cause a rise in Ponchatrain of 8 foot (and it is only 10-20 ft. deep to begin with) and the wind would be blowing the water in Ponchatrain from north to south, causing the levee to likely fail.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Hey Montegut, are you around the Point Aux Chenes area? Great fishing but hella flooding, and that's probably an understatement. We thought about building there but chose not to after TS Bill last year.

South of PAC----Lower Montegut Area--For Bill we had about a foot of water but Lili we had at least 5ft /more in some areas.

they are talkin about come close to louisiana..... my house may go swimming again.

[Scorpion]

Yes, and it is starting to turn north as we speak.

[HurryKane]

i'll just say this and leave it alone and all of you can go ahead and talk new orleans all though its very likely not going to happen. if there was any real chance of it coming to new orleans, dont you think the NHC would be all over it? think about it...

Does it really matter, though, whether there's a chance or not right now? Why quash a valid discussion that needs to happen regardless of immediate threat?

I understand what you're saying, lookout, but people aren't talking about NOLA evacuations and such in the belief that Ivan hit is an absolute certainty. They're talking about it in the abstract. Is that so wrong?

[Sean in New Orleans]

Hey Montegut, are you around the Point Aux Chenes area? Great fishing but hella flooding, and that's probably an understatement. We thought about building there but chose not to after TS Bill last year.

South of PAC----Lower Montegut Area--For Bill we had about a foot of water but Lili we had at least 5ft /more in some areas.

they are talkin about come close to louisiana..... my house may go swimming again.

If I was in Montegut, I would have a plan to get as many of my possessions out of there if need be...Montegut will be way under water if this storm threatens our area. Just have a plan, IMO...but, don't get too worried just yet.

[drezee]

164kt drop

62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1987N08299W LST WND 095 MBL WND 07164 AEV 2
0400 DLM WND 10150 933707 WL150 06159 169 =

[LSUChamps0002]

I can be at the lake in 3 minutes. Ugh.