Ivan Advisories

[Matthew5]

Javier is a little storm next to Ivan. Ivan would distroy Javier if it got to close to Ivan.

[drezee]

nevermind

[calidoug]

Yeah, the inner eyewall has collapsed now... 0015Z IR.

[mf_dolphin]

Back to Cat 5 once again.

[Guest]

Cool deal Dean! Thanks

[Dean4Storms]

Lightning in the eyewall could also be a sign of a tornadic cell.

[hla97]

My husband and I live in Plaquemines Parish and I am VERY scared. We are about 1/2 Block from the Mississippi River(so close i stand on my porch and watch the cruise ships pass and can see the people standing on the decks) on one side and 2 Blocks from the Gulf of Mexico on the other. We have already started to pack and prepare. I just dont trust it and am watching that NOGaps track. I have this weird feeling in the back of my brain that says this storm is headed straight for us.

[BillC]

Please help me understand how my reasoning (based on the link below) is flawed. My reasoning is that the combination of the clockwise swirl on the left side of the screen and the SW to NE flow in the Gulf will steer Ivan NW to N to NE ... right of the models and the TPC forecast track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 299#671299

I posted that same model run at the models thread at link above.Let's try to post at that thread.

[Lindaloo]

Isn't it rare to see lightning in a hurricane? When Charley made landfall I could of swore Jim Cantore said that.

Only lightning I have ever seen in a cane is the green flashes from the transformers blowing up.

[Anonymous]

Lightning in the eyewall could also be a sign of a tornadic cell.

A tornado in a Cat 5 would be irrelevant

[otowntiger]

IN the NHC 5:00 discussion there was no talk of shear in the gulf like they've mentioned in the 5-6 previous advisories. Now they mention something very interesting, upwelling. That has never been talked about before now. I find it very interesting that suddenly there is no shear, but the water temps are now the issue. All along I've understood that upwelling would only occur where the storm sat for a long time and mixed up the deeper, cooler waters. I understand the SST's in the Gulf is a non issue, i.e. they are plenty warm. Anybody have any thoughts on that?

[TSmith274]

hla97, it is a strange feeling when you are in your house and the hull of the ship passing by is higher than your house. Actually watching one go by now. We live in a unique place, that's for sure. Just stay calm and watch Ch4.

[Stormsfury]

Lightning in the eyewall could also be a sign of a tornadic cell.

Generally not on the SW quad ... but anyway, MOST of the time, the tornadoes will occur on the right front quadrant (NE side of the storm, and generally, in the outer bands and not so much within the eyewall itself) ... and Houstoner is right, not much differential within the eyewall of a CAT 5 ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

Something I really didn't mention specifically is AFTER LANDFALL, much like Frances, the synoptic setup with enhancement of isentropic lift amongst the in-situ wedging will yet again support a potential for SIGNIFICANT FLOODING and the potential for a SIGNIFICANT NUMBER of tornadoes being spawned much like Frances ...

SF

[calidoug]

A tornado in a Cat 5 would be irrelevant

Not true.

While hurricane-spawned tornados tend to be weaker, if it were a stronger tornado, it would be considerably more damaging, wind wise:

F4 and F5 tornados don't blow houses away--- they explode them.

F5: 261-318 mph.

http://www.tornadoproject.com/fscale/fscale.htm

[Anonymous]

So you think an F-4 / F-5 tornado will randomnly appear in the eyewall of a Cat 5?

[Matthew5]

I beat this hurrican has gust upwards of 200 mph! Just wait intill that outer eye wall tightens. It appears to be taking over...

[HURAKAN]

[KYAGoodbye]

I am in New Orleans too. I have also seen the videos and read all about the worst case scenario. I think it's a good idea to book rooms and think about leaving tomorrow. Otherwise, how will we ever evacuate given the 72 hours necessary? I'd rather be laughed at for leaving and have it not come, than stay and get trapped. Remember Georges? Massive traffic jams.... I hope this shrivels up like Lily! ( praying ot Our Lady of Prompt Succor!) For those interested in what we are talking about re: the worst case, see: http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2000/wnoflood.htm
and
http://americanradioworks.publicradio.o ... cane1.html