No -removed- here but...

[tampastorm]

I really think looking at the future " conditions" , the west coast of FL has a much better shot then west say New Orleans of having a direct hit from Ivan.

[Deana Cuevas]

Why do you think this?

[tampastorm]

I think the high to the east of FL is slowly heading back east, also the troughs digging down will force Ivan N then NNE then NE, also with the speed of Ivan makes this even a more possibilty.

[Anonymous]

Ivan wont hit the West Coast of Florida, NO has a much better shot in my mind.

[tampastorm]

Just look at the condtions, after looking at them , how can you say that? Just trying to see what I am missing. thanks!

[Deana Cuevas]

I have a very bad feeling about this one. I think he will make his way to central Florida.... I hope not! But right now I don't think Ivan gives a dam@ about what I think. I'm dont' know what to believe and I certainly don't know which Met to REALLY listen to..

[Anonymous]

Its too far west now, it already passed the west coast of Florida's Longitude. It would basically have to start turning north right now, and recurve, which I dont see hapenning. Im looking for it to hit between NO and the western panhandle.

[muddyflorida]

No one really knows where he's going. Anything is possible at this point. I am also in Tampa Bay and I really would hate for it to come here though, so lets just keep our fingers crossed because we have just as much a chance doing that as we do guessing where it will end up.

[tronbunny]

Passing a certain longitude is irrelevant.
Don't think that current direction is the direction it will continue to travel.
There are many more influences than current direction of travel.
It is right for all the eastern GOM
(NOLA eastward) to be concerned.
The most educated predictions still has Ivan hitting the FL panhandle. But if you'll look at the WV loops, Ivan is beginning to even influence the Bahamas weather conditions!

[Anonymous]

Passing a certain longitude is irrelevant.
Don't think that current direction is the direction it will continue to travel.
There are many more influences than current direction of travel.
It is right for all the eastern GOM
(NOLA eastward) to be concerned.
The most educated predictions still has Ivan hitting the FL panhandle. But if you'll look at the WV loops, Ivan is beginning to even influence the Bahamas weather conditions!

No, in fact longitude is VERY important (as you will learn when you see where this hurricane hits in relation to what longitute it turns at). I realize that the storms movement wont be the same, hence the need for recurvature that I mentioned.

[calidoug]

18Z GFS = Panama City, FL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

http://www.sitesatlas.com/Maps/Maps/FL1.htm

[AL Chili Pepper]

Just my .02, but I still think NO to say...Cedar Key, with the area around Destin having a big bullseye on it.

[Sharkhunter622]

Nice to see warnings out for the Yucatan.Im in Central Florida

[tronbunny]

No, in fact longitude is VERY important (as you will learn when you see where this hurricane hits in relation to what longitute it turns at). I realize that the storms movement wont be the same, hence the need for recurvature that I mentioned.

Disagree strongly.
There are historical tracks that defy your statement.
Please point me to data that says that a hurricane at this longitude CANNOT return to areas east.

But that is why we are all here.[/quote]

[Dean4Storms]

It helps to not get over loaded with too many what if's or maybe's. I've found patience and waiting for definitive word from the NHC to either confirm or deny my own suspicions tends to help.

Right now it looks like Ivan will wobble as he rides around the western side of the Atlantic ridge eventually getting to a more northerly track just as the NHC forecasts. They underestimated the ridge but have since gotten more data and have a better handle on it now.

[BillC]

tampastorm,

I tend to agree with you. See the below post from another thread. [FYI --No one has responded yet.]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44437

[Anonymous]

Disagree strongly.
There are historical tracks that defy your statement.
Please point me to data that says that a hurricane at this longitude CANNOT return to areas east.

But in THIS case, the more west this storm moves the farther west it will make landfall. I dont see how you can dispute that.

[NFLnut]

I'll never say never, but at this point, and with the direction Ivan has been going for two-plus days, hitting central Florida would take quite an unnatural turn! I don't see it happening.

[tronbunny]

Disagree strongly.
There are historical tracks that defy your statement.
Please point me to data that says that a hurricane at this longitude CANNOT return to areas east.

But in THIS case, the more west this storm moves the farther west it will make landfall. I dont see how you can dispute that.

I can dispute it, because no one at the NHC has said that the residents of the Keys should return.
I can dispute it, because I can point to specific historical tracks that have taken storms from this area eastward.
I'm not saying that the storm will not not land westward, but I am saying that I feel you are wrong for assuming that it CANNOT land eastward.

[marc21688]

The storm path of this storm is likely going to be a parabola ( U-Shaped) so longitude means nothing.