Please Read... Hurricane misunderstandings....

[ericinmia]

I am not going to go into depth about this; however I feel it very important to share/explain it.

I keep reading posts in 80% of the threads referring to hurricanes as objects and masses. It is neither.

It is very important to understand that hurricanes are fluidic compilations of moisture and air. It is gathered together into a hurricane by the Coriolis Effect; given the right conditions in the northern hemisphere random tropical moisture is spun counter-clockwise into organized storms.

The storm is like bubbles on the top of a moving stream, it takes the path of least resistance... but generally down stream (north) if it can.

This is especially important when there is no major steering pattern in place. It will not take much to get this hurricane to move in any one direction. It will move on whichever path is strongest.

The coming short wave trough does not have to be stronger than Ivan to be able to redirect him, it is not fighting him. It has to be stronger than the ridge, and if it breaks it, then the new path of least resistance would be to flow down the trough.

Think of the World's Climate as a 3D terrain map. The high pressures are mountains and high plateaus, and the low pressures are valleys. The hurricane will flow down whichever valley is deepest.

Right now Ivan is traveling parallel to a High pressure ridge, or High plateau which only allows him to travel west. If the short wave trough cuts a valley in this ridge, then Ivan will take that path for it will be the least path of resistance.

Just remember a hurricane is an assembly of fluidic and air members. It is not a solid object and thus is not constrained or governed by the normal rules of solid objects. Hope that helped some....

-Eric

EDIT:
One addition....

When storms like Ivan come along many claim that they create their own weather enviroments. This is true to a degree. The deep flow from the surface and out through the eye which all hurricanes have, but is amplified to a much higher degree. This causes Major Hurricanes to alter their enviroment. The hurricanes outflow is what causes these changes.
It has occured some with Ivan; the High to his north has amplified some, while the ULL to his north-east has benifited greatly by his presence. Look at what the ULL has done with the two major high's over the atlantic (the Bermuda, and the azores).

[BensonTCwatcher]

Great post Eric!

Well said.

[mobilebay]

noted. however, is every single model wrong. If anything, the models have under estimated the ridge strength, not over(thus the continued west movement).

[dhweather]

Yup.

The air is a fluid, the oceans are a fluid.

That is why a great deal of supercomputing power in the US focuses on computation fluid dynamics and climate weather ocean.

What happens in the atmosphere is very similar to things that happen in the ocean, they are just faster in the atmosphere.

[KWT]

yeah it helped,thanks!!!!

[Ixolib]

Thanks Eric - After I read these kinds of things, I sometimes feel like I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Just in my short time on this board, I have learned more about tropical systems than in my previous "many" years on earth!!

[BensonTCwatcher]

I would only look at the models and where they out the storm in 36 hours. After that look at where they put the storm in 36 hours. After that............

[ericinmia]

The models are not completely wrong, they have acutally generally been on track. They are simply having a great deal of trouble dealing with such a weak, but VERY complex setup.

In the usually scenario they have to compute how possibly one trough, and one high will intereact with the storm. However, right now... There are three highs, two troughs and a strong ULL in the atlantic. This is why most storms that enter the gulf are hard to predict, because the weather pattern is more complex.
Charley was an anomaly to this rule. There was such a strong trough digging very deep that it was obvious to the models, the mets, and even the amateur mets that Charley would head into south-west florida.
-Eric

[Greg]

I keep reading posts in 80% of the threads referring to hurricanes as objects and masses. It is neither.

Then they shouldn't use the word "it", or "Ivan" (Object)
The use of the word "density" should not be used (A description of mass)

Tell the people that have had 12 plus inches of rain fall on them that there no mass to the object.

If an ice cube is floating in a glass of water, sure we can describe the variation of temperature, viscosity, etc, and it all has to do with fluid dynamics, but we can all say the ice cube is an object that differs enough from the overall fluid, it can be called a mass.

Just my opinon

[ericinmia]

Sorry for the disagreement greg, however, this is one of the first things Met's learn on their way to a degree.

Like a said prior... (in other words)

Hurricanes, storms , etc. all containg water and air. Sure water contains mass... however the assembly of water molecules in storms does NOT add up to a sold mass such as your example... an ice cube. Hurricanes are NOT single masses or physical objects.
This post is not meant to delve deep into fluid dynamics, there is no need for me to get deep into that. I am trying to simply help the majority with a better understanding of what hurricanes are, and what will cause them to move.
-Eric

[patsmsg]

Your information is appreciated, Eric. Very intersting and informative post.

[Stormsfury]

The base of the 1st trough is still around 31.5ºN ... Ivan is still 19.5ºN, or about 12º latitude differential ... and generally NOT enough to induce a significant poleward turn this early in the ballgame ...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... entwv.html

[ericinmia]

Stormsfury, i appreciate your coments on every thread i ever post, however is it necissary for you to start forecasting/debating in a thread that is talking about hurricanes and how they move in general...
Please don't abstract from what the post was written for.
-Eric

[NorthGaWeather]

Stormsfury, i appreciate your coments on every thread i ever post, however is it necissary for you to start forecasting/debating in a thread that is talking about hurricanes and how they move in general...
Please don't abstract from what the post was written for.
-Eric

Eric, I think Stormsfury was just commenting on the talk about the trough that you highlighted in your first post and others talked about. The trough does have ALOT to do with how hurricanes generally move.

[Lockhart]

Thanks for an informative post, Eric.

[HurricaneQueen]

Good descriptive post Eric. Thanks for all of the information. It certainly makes understanding easier for us amateurs.

Lynn

[ericinmia]

I'm glad i was able to offer something to support the community. This is a great place to learn about weather, very quickly too.
Stay Safe Everyone!
-Eric

[tronbunny]

It's very easy for us to think in terms of mass.
Understanding fluid dynamics is very complex.
Thanks for reminding us of that.

[Deana Cuevas]

Thanks Eric!!

[Eyes2theSkies]

great post. eric