Gradual turn beginning?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Agua
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1138
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:54 pm
Location: Biloxi, Mississippi

Gradual turn beginning?

#1 Postby Agua » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:27 pm

A definite northward component to the movement, vis a' vis, the last 24 hours. By "northward", I don't mean 0 degrees, but a gradual turn. It's slightly west and south of the NHC track presently.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
charleston_hugo_veteran
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:47 pm
Location: Charleston, S.C.

Re: Gradual turn beginning?

#2 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:28 pm

Agua wrote:A definite northward component to the movement, vis a' vis, the last 24 hours. By "northward", I don't mean 0 degrees, but a gradual turn. It's slightly west and south of the NHC track presently.


I SEE IT TOO!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LAwxrgal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1763
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Reserve, LA (30 mi west of NOLA)

#3 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:29 pm

The "turn" has been forecast for days upon days now. Where and when it occurs will determine the landfall point for Ivan IMO.
0 likes   
Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Top
Ivanova

#4 Postby Ivanova » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:29 pm

see what ?

please give link ?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Sean in New Orleans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 7:26 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA 30.0N 90.0W
Contact:
Contact Sean in New Orleans

#5 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:30 pm

I'm ready and waiting for this turn....I don't want this thing near me or my city. Let it go somewhere east!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2462
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormchazer

#6 Postby stormchazer » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:31 pm

To early to tell. We will have to wait and see if it is a trend. Appears to be more of a stair step.
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#7 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:32 pm

Dont look like that NW turn to me. Still moving WNW.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BensonTCwatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1050
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
Location: Southport NC

#8 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:32 pm

If you watck the outer circle of the storm you see it. If you look at the eye it's harder to see. we'll need a couple hours to verify
0 likes   
Top
Ivanova

#9 Postby Ivanova » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:32 pm

Ivanova wrote:
see what ?

please give link ?



:?:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
webke
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 290
Age: 70
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:39 pm
Location: North Myrtle Beach SC

Turn

#10 Postby webke » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:33 pm

I don't see what you are referring to, It looks like it is still heading WNW on the radar images. Please show us the link that :?: is guiding you in this .
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#11 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:34 pm

You can see it on the NHC floater. You can track the storm there until landfall. Go to the NHC site, click on satellite imagery, and ivan is under floater one.
0 likes   
Top
Fodie77
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:21 pm

#12 Postby Fodie77 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:34 pm

Ivanova wrote:
Ivanova wrote:
see what ?

please give link ?



:?:

Yeah really, we need a link. I'm still seeing the same thing I saw earlier on the NHC website.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mobilebay
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1853
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 1:22 am
Location: Mobile, Alabama

#13 Postby mobilebay » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:34 pm

Hay. Hay now a true WNW motion finaly.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:34 pm

6 frames are needed to see if it is a wobble or a trend.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
lilbump3000
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 966
Age: 38
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 10:09 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Contact:
Contact lilbump3000

#15 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:34 pm

That turn has not begun yet webke, its still moving to the WNW as far as i can see.
0 likes   
Top
das8929

#16 Postby das8929 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:34 pm

I see it going in the same direction as before, but there isnt much of a westward jog anymore.
0 likes   
Top
Fodie77
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:21 pm

#17 Postby Fodie77 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:35 pm

lilbump3000 wrote:You can see it on the NHC floater. You can track the storm there until landfall. Go to the NHC site, click on satellite imagery, and ivan is under floater one.

It appears the same to me. Maybe I'm not looking hard enough.
0 likes   
Top
Fodie77
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:21 pm

#18 Postby Fodie77 » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:36 pm

Check off forecast points, its still easily south of the NHC track.
0 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2779
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

#19 Postby Frank P » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:36 pm

Not a NW motion, still WNW from what I can tell....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BensonTCwatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1050
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
Location: Southport NC

#20 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Sun Sep 12, 2004 1:37 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

watch the whole storm not just eye. We'll need at least 4 more frames...to be sure
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: MetroMike, pepecool20 and 299 guests