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...next 6-12 hours crucial to Ivan's future path (duh!). IMO, a N turn should occur by this PM, based on next trough, accompanied a low dropping SE through Ark / La then into the GOM. I cannot see Ivan crossing W or NW through this barrier, and a N/NE turn should occur in front of it.
Of course, I have my knife and fork ready if Mother Nature serves a nice crow pie to me!!
I tend to agree with you, but don't have any science to back up that statement. My major worry now is a slowdown, because it appears that could mean all bets are off!
Will enjoy hearing what other knowledgeable posters have to say on this one.