Ivan Advisories

[birdwomn]

I'd rather have Avila or Beven doing these forecasts, but that's just me

Ok, Derek -

I'll bite, what is it you like about Avila?

[SwampDawg]

Agree with you there Pebbles. That's one way to pick up business

[Deenac813]

Here is a stupid question... Why does the Keys have a tropcial storm warning now when they are not even in the "cone of terror"? Is it because Ivan could get close enough to them to feel some effects?

[vbhoutex]

Man oh man I didn't need this kind of confirmation of my concerns!!! Unfortuanately, I do have to agree with your reasoning so far. That is why I called my Mother near Destin last night and told he to get out and come see us here in Houston. Of course she is sure she will be ok at her church which is supposedly built to withstand such things. I don't need to bore you with the conversation, but "you can lead a horse to water, you can't make them drink."

[dennis1x1]

the worst has missed them just south...just like jamaica.....still getting hurricane force winds of course.

[Dave C]

The last recon reported double wind max. so I believe it would be hard for Cayman to miss the eye-wall and probably is getting hammered by the outer one. The outflow channel north of Ivan due to upper-low to it's NE has been persistant for more than 24hrs. and with the high oceanic heat content has lead to quite a prolific storm. Dry air and shear hopefully will bring steady weakening in the gulf, similar to Floyd as he approached the Carolinas with steady weakening in the winds. The storm chasers are sure going to burned out this season!!!

[Ixolib]

Man oh man I didn't need this kind of confirmation of my concerns!!! Unfortuanately, I do have to agree with your reasoning so far. That is why I called my Mother near Destin last night and told he to get out and come see us here in Houston. Of course she is sure she will be ok at her church which is supposedly built to withstand such things. I don't need to bore you with the conversation, but "you can lead a horse to water, you can't make them drink."

Yep,,, In Elena, my mom wouldn't go until about 1 hour before landfall!!

[Guest]

WATCH ... there is a big difference

[Scott_inVA]

I'd rather have Avila or Beven doing these forecasts, but that's just me

C'mon Derek, Dr. Lexion is a tremendous forecaster but unargueablely has the slowest trigger at TPC.
Beven: excellent.

[JoanFlorida]

"Quit thinking so much"...and that reasoning, ladies and gentleman, is why we subject our students to the FCAT today...

Simply spitting out facts won't get anyone to the other side of anything. Thinking...hmmm...the thing we do with our brain, that appendage at the top of our head, is what separates us from, well, you know...those slimey- crawly creatures that roam the earth (and I didn't mean that in a political sense, although it does fit quite nicely.)

Anyway... I like that you think and acknowledge your thoughts about warning the Yucatan.

My instinct (a no-brainer; all heart) says its going west some more before it goes north...that is a big freakin' bowling ball!

[Deenac813]

WATCH ... there is a big difference

oops sorry I typed too fast without double checking it

[PurdueWx80]

The winds across S. FL and Cuba are already very gusty.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/2004091214_metars_tpa.gif

It won't take a whole lot more to bring them to weak tropical storm levels from time to time.

[jlauderdal]

Man oh man I didn't need this kind of confirmation of my concerns!!! Unfortuanately, I do have to agree with your reasoning so far. That is why I called my Mother near Destin last night and told he to get out and come see us here in Houston. Of course she is sure she will be ok at her church which is supposedly built to withstand such things. I don't need to bore you with the conversation, but "you can lead a horse to water, you can't make them drink."

when floyd was approaching my father in law suggested we go to the church. i said well first of all the hurricane doesnt lessen its impact because its a church contrary to what some people might think and second of all my house much better prepared than that church or any other church.

[HurricaneQueen]

Interestingly, Steve Lyons never mentioned the Watches except for a "change in Cuba" in his 10:50 update?

[Dave C]

Tropical storm force winds extend more than 100 miles out from the center and probably even further than that east of the track due to northerly movement as it passes to their west.

[Brent]

a little more to the right for the U.S. landfall

http://ratfish.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphic ... 1538W5.gif

[EverythingIsEverything]

He seems to be making a V-line and then nope he wobbles before a direct hit, although the islands do/did see the strong winds and rain, but it is amazing how the head-lines are Jamaica spared a direct hit or Cayman Islands spared a direct hit. i'm sure forecasting Ivan is giving the NHC fits right about now!

[dennis1x1]

cat 2....cuba landfall irrelevant now that us landfall days after cuban.....very strong windshear will take ivan to near strong cat 2, per ships model and nhc forecast.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Derek, why is your forecast showing such a turn to the north as Ivan gets into the channel? Could you please explain what you see in the future that causes this movement. Thanks

[Deenac813]

Tropical storm force winds extend more than 100 miles out from the center and probably even further than that east of the track due to northerly movement as it passes to their west.

Thanks Dave.. I am much clearer now.. thanks!