North

[seannymac]

What is the chance now of the storm turning North and impacting the Keys with a full force strike?

[sunflowerkist]

The dynamics of a hurricane are such that they can not turn on a dime. But, if you will notice the water Vapor pictures from the TPC of the ull in the atlantic, it is getting squashed elongating it north to south, so there is something trying to nudge easterly. I think that the westward movement may slow in the oncoming hours, but the Keys may only get a brush as Ivan heads towards the Northern Gulf States. I am no expert, just an observation of the Satellites as they are being shown.

[jlauderdal]

What is the chance now of the storm turning North and impacting the Keys with a full force strike?

tell you what..this is going to sound crazy but the way things are going this thing could slow down or stop hangout and than we get a trough coming along and get a brand new track like way east..nobody else has nailed this track in fact we have seen people be all over the place and still not get it so we might as well throw this idea out there.

[RichG]

jlauderdal


I was thinking along those lines myself. I would sure like to see this storm move in an expidited manner as that high is not going to sit there forever. The last sat frame I saw it looked like it was looping sw!!

[jlauderdal]

jlauderdal


I was thinking along those lines myself. I would sure like to see this storm move in an expidited manner as that high is not going to sit there forever. The last sat frame I saw it looked like it was looping sw!!

good deal...me and mortisfla are on aol im this morning discussing this possibility so he also gets credit if we verify. we will add you too. i would rather split 10 lbs of corw 3 ways than eating myself..anyone else wanna join our camp.

[RichG]

I will be more than happy to eat all 10 lbs of crow myself (raw even!!) if we are wrong. I keep thinking Irene and Mitch.

[jlauderdal]

I will be more than happy to eat all 10 lbs of crow myself (raw even!!) if we are wrong. I keep thinking Irene and Mitch.

tell you what..that will be in play if this thing doesnt start gaining some latitude

[RichG]

If this thing doesn't gain some latitude in the next 2 days I will be gaining some latitude via the turnpike!

[Frank P]

Ivan has gained latitude from the get go, and continues to gain latitude.... granted not all that fast but if you go back and look at his track history he's been wnw for a very very long time, and I see no reason why he will not continue this track to the wnw with the eventual NW to N turn... my opinion only..

[RichG]

FrankP

That is my point "not that fast" The high over florida is not a permenant feature. The longer is takes to gain latitude the more time there for the high to pull back, erode etc. You are probably right I am somewhat confident in the NHC track however my shutters have not come down yet and I have enough gas to get out of dodge IF the high were to fade, erode, pull back or generally go poof.

[Frank P]

Rich I don't blame you one bit... with all Florida has gone through in the past month, every precaution should and must be taken...

I really don't want to see the central or southern parts of Florida hit again.... those people have suffered way to much... I also have a trip to Disney World in a couple of weeks.... and right now I'm seriously considering cancelling my trip, and will if it goes through central florida

But I'm not saying that Ivan will not go to the central or southern parts of Florida, hell, I'm not that smart... Just like I didn't really see another Floyd type track for Frances early in its forecast period, as some, I really don't see another Charlie type track for Ivan right at the moment.. ... not unless it really does stall and a front comes down and does shunt it off to the east.... hey, with this thing anything and everything is possible..

my opinion for what its worth

[wasup254]

so, the feature that is running south to north over Florida will not pull it North, then NNE? Like Charley..

What is this feature??? a trough????

Newbie, be kind

[melhow]

ok...this is how one of our local mets explained it on air.....

Right now, there are TWO scenerios for IVAN:

1) The High pressure system to the east of Ivan keeps up and allows for a little most west movement of the storm. The trough that is moving south and east over the top of Ivan picks up the storm as it passes over the western tip of CUba and takes it North and a little east up to the middle of the panhandle.

2) Ivan hangs out around CUBA for a few days. The high pressure system to the east of the storm gradually weakens. Ivan continues WEST and a little north in the meantime towards the Yucatan. The trough that is moving south and east then picks up IVAN and swings him in a wide U back towards the East towards Florida. Ivan hits up near the big bend or south depending on the speed of the storm and the direction on the trough. This *still* keeps Tampa and areas north in the picture, though it is likly if this scenerio plays out, the landfall would be 60-100 miles noth of Tampa.

This is how I understood the scenerios.

Anyone else?

[wjs3]

so, the feature that is running south to north over Florida will not pull it North, then NNE? Like Charley..

No, Wasup... They're talking about a ridge--high pressure. Right now, that Ridge around Florida is holding Ivan from coming as far N as expected. What these guys are discussing is that if Ivan slows down--if steering currents weaken--he could be sitting there until a trough comes by, crushes that ridge, and picks him up. Charley got picked up by a trough--it led to his NNE movement. And anything E of N means the Fla peninsula is back in the game.

Hope that helps.

[stormchazer]

Listening to Dr. Lyons on TWC this morning, he made it a point to suggest that Ivans slow movement is making the forecast verydifficult. The Eastern GOM needs to watch very carefully but anyone in the GOM is not out of play.

[LadyStorm]

Last satellite pic I saw was bothersome, the ULL off the east coast of FL looked like it was being squashed. Has anyone else seen this?

so, the feature that is running south to north over Florida will not pull it North, then NNE? Like Charley..

No, Wasup... They're talking about a ridge--high pressure. Right now, that Ridge around Florida is holding Ivan from coming as far N as expected. What these guys are discussing is that if Ivan slows down--if steering currents weaken--he could be sitting there until a trough comes by, crushes that ridge, and picks him up. Charley got picked up by a trough--it led to his NNE movement. And anything E of N means the Fla peninsula is back in the game.

Hope that helps.

[wasup254]

it does, I was looking at the cloud feature over Florida and wondering if this was the influence, so now I am a bit more clear. There is a high over Florida and Ivan is not able to punch through until something weakens it

Correct?

[wjs3]

That's a good way to think of it. Hurricanes move toward weaknesses--lower pressure. If and when that high pressure gives way--which it can accomplish in a ton of ways (or not), Ivan will likey go to that weakness.

[hurricanefloyd5]

the stunt the ivan pulled around jamaca ii woundlt be surprized if ivan did come to central florida or north central florida......... ivane stopped on the coast of Jamaca and then moved due west and back wnw after passing jamacaz and that's never happened before with a hurricane this size or any hurricaneat the fact so yes i still think their is a chance that ivan colud stop by the central florid area.(orlando/tampa) but it's just a thought!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[wasup254]

NCH said that south florida could take down their shutters with confidence. so I am thinking that they wouldnot even begin to say that unless they were confident we were in danger.

I work on the west coast and I will be going there tomorrow, but in Naples, so I feel secure there also.

I am wrong or right about being secure?