Updated My Site...Forecast #3

chris_fit · #1 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:39 pm

http://www.aboutmylife.net/users/chris_fit

As stupid as it sounds I still don't buy all the models. Just less than 2 days ago they were south of the bay area now they are almost out of Florida. Na Uh. I think they are "thinking" too hard on this one.

Comments welcome.

TheWriteIdea · #2 Postby **TheWriteIdea** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:43 pm

Are we talking about Ivan or Charley???

chris_fit · #3 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:45 pm

Frances :-P

#4 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:50 pm

Interesting thoughts. I admire that you're being as consistent as possible w/ yourself. I still disagree w/ you, as I think the ridge to the east of Ivan will only be reinforced by the deep western CONUS trough and by Ivan himself. The upper low in the Atlantic is already showing signs of gaining latitude, and before long there should be a ridge all along the southeastern coast from FL to VA. I'm going to remain consistent w/ myself as well - this is a central GOM storm in my mind. I'd almost pull the eastern edge of possible landfall north of Tampa, but I want to wait to make sure this trend west isn't just an anomaly. The Eta and GEM guidance will score a big coup if this storm does indeed track in between N'awlins and Panama City. From day one I've been backing them up, and I'll let them speak for themselves if they end up being correct.

Foladar · #5 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:51 pm

How do you feel Miami area will be affected?

rockyoulikeahurricane · #6 Postby **rockyoulikeahurricane** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:52 pm

wow, what a great site!

I still can't figure out how you updated it at this time though. :-)

btw, how will the Northeast Fl. area, like Daytona be affected?

chris_fit · #7 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:53 pm

Miami area should be ok. It's almost due south of you now, and heading west. It would take a MAJOR deep trough shoot it your way. You SHOULD be ok but keep monitoring.

Foladar · #8 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:54 pm

chris_fit wrote:Miami area should be ok. It's almost due south of you now, and heading west. It would take a MAJOR deep trough shoot it your way. You SHOULD be ok but keep monitoring.

What about our winds, rain? Think we will have a good day? I'm curious if classes and work would be cancelled.

chris_fit · #9 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:55 pm

Nothing that would disrupt normal life

Maybe some extra traffic from the people in the Keys.

Website · #10 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:55 pm

Foladar wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Miami area should be ok. It's almost due south of you now, and heading west. It would take a MAJOR deep trough shoot it your way. You SHOULD be ok but keep monitoring.

What about our winds, rain? Think we will have a good day? I'm curious if classes and work would be cancelled.

No... might not even get what you got from Charley...

Foladar · #11 Postby **Foladar** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:57 pm

Brent wrote:
Foladar wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Miami area should be ok. It's almost due south of you now, and heading west. It would take a MAJOR deep trough shoot it your way. You SHOULD be ok but keep monitoring.

What about our winds, rain? Think we will have a good day? I'm curious if classes and work would be cancelled.

No... might not even get what you got from Charley...

We didn't get anything from Charley

rbaker · #12 Postby **rbaker** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:58 pm

isn't that the key purdue if they are correct. You as a person might as well make your own prediction, and could be just as right or wrong as the models. With dozens of models out there which one will be right. Impossible to say, because each one has its bias, and depending on the storm it could be way off or right on. That is why predicting tropical systems are very hard to track, it really comes down to your best guest 5 days out.
I will give the tpc credit on there 3 days forecast, and as said before are pretty consistant there. But these 5 days forcast are for the media, and get people like in the keys more time to evacuate.
Bottom line your prediction as to where it goes outside of 3 days is just as valid as the tpc, when models are consistanly changing.

AL Chili Pepper · #13 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:04 pm

All in all, a pretty good forecast. The left side of your cone is very near the NHC track. One thing though, the ULL in the Atlantic looks to have nearly completed it's westward motion.

#14 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:06 pm

I'm not criticizing anything but the GFS - based solely on it's past performance w/ both Frances and now Ivan. I think I've explained my thoughts on this storm, w/o having actually created a site w/ a forecast. It takes guts to put yourself out on the line like that, and I respect Chris for doing this. He asked for comments, I gave him mine, and told him that I disagree.

chris_fit · #15 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:08 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:I'm not criticizing anything but the GFS - based solely on it's past performance w/ both Frances and now Ivan. I think I've explained my thoughts on this storm, w/o having actually created a site w/ a forecast. It takes guts to put yourself out on the line like that, and I respect Chris for doing this. He asked for comments, I gave him mine, and told him that I disagree.

And I thank you for your comment! You have good points as well.

#16 Postby **tronbunny** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:16 pm

Chris,
On a lighter note..
Jim Cantore is in Punta Gorda.
Seems he picks the outer edge of the cone.
Wasn't he in Clearwater for Charley?
Daytona for Frances?

Now if you're really paranoid, you can infer that he's always on the northernmost edge!

chris_fit · #17 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:17 pm

I met Jim here in Melbourne/Palm Bay during Frances

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:25 pm

Yeah...Ivan is going to blow right through the high pressure to his north and shoot the gap, so to speak. NOT!

He will eventually turn north, but not where you have it projected.

Currently, he will make a landfall somewhere around Pensacola to Panama City.

air360 · #19 Postby **air360** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:30 pm

Big EZ wrote:Yeah...Ivan is going to blow right through the high pressure to his north and shoot the gap, so to speak. NOT!
......
Currently, he will make a landfall somewhere around Pensacola to Panama City.

man Big EZ....it was just his opinion...he is allowed to say it all day long if he wants...and at this point in time what makes his opinion so much better than your "Currently, he will make a landfall somewhere around Pensacola to Panama City"...nothing is set into stone this far out...Chris has done alot more in terms of showing his reasoning and has even made forecast tracks and everything...he's done wonderful as far as how to go about giving his opinion....and again..its HIS opinion..so watch it with the rude comments

birdwomn · #20 Postby **birdwomn** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:33 pm

chris_fit wrote:I met Jim here in Melbourne/Palm Bay during Frances

Hey was it you who posted the pics, or was that someone else?

BTW: I gotta give you credit for doing these forecasts...and wish I disagreed with your forecasts. It's still too close to my house! :roll:

Updated My Site...Forecast #3

Updated My Site...Forecast #3

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