Ivan Advisories

[Brent]

No... that translates to 145 kts or 165 mph at the surface.



Well it was nice knowing Grand Cayman...

[Guest]

I hope they never name a hurricane Adolf.

[otowntiger]

I notice all of these childish comments coming from all new posters. This is sad. Hopefully, many of you will come to recognize the general mood of this board over time and it consists of intelligent analysis, and opinions--weighing different options, and respecting others and listening because of how they feel. With that said, everything is shifting West and it will probably wind up between Mobile and Panama City when it comes to landfall, IMHO.

IMHO, everyone here is fishing and sooner or later your gonna catch a break. IMHO...happy fishing...

If by fishing you mean, some folks here thinly veil their desire to experience a storm, then I agree totally. It is not consequence that posters from the Panhandle to Texas get pretty "talkative" when there appears to be a westward shift, wobble etc, and folks from the Panhandle up to the Carolinas get talkative when there is a shift or wobble to the east.
To Sean in N.O. I may be a "newbie" if it is defined by how long I've been a member and posting here, but I know all about this board and at least one other as I've been lurking (but very infrequently posting) for years. I live in Orlando, but was raised in Baton Rouge. Most of my family still live there. I've been closely following and tracking hurricanes for the last 30 years. I think I can poke a little fun at what I see as a very obvious inclination of this board. So just lighten up, would ya? My post above was an attempt at levity.

[ilmc172pilot]

WOW.......man what an impressive storm this is.......too bad such beauty and power is so deadly

[Josephine96]

It's still very strong

[lahurricanewatcher]

This storm has been billed as definately for Florida for a long time, and I would assume those to the west have been a bit complacent.

I would have to agree. Although I have been watching this storm closely, I have to admit that my concern was directed to the people in florida and the eastern gulf. I worry now that people who are not insane hurricane addicts like myself won't take this storm seriously and prepare...whether or not they are in the cone of uncertainty.

[ericinmia]

rm IVAN: Observed By AF #966
Storm #09 in Atlantic Ocean
Date/Time of Recon Report: Saturday, September 11, 2004 3:17:00 PM
Position of the center: 18° 06' N 79° 11' W
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2354m (Normal: 3011)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 95KT
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 29nm (33.349999999999994miles) From Center At Bearing 049°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 161KT (185.15mph) From 127°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 012nm (13.799999999999999miles) From Center At Bearing 058°
Minimum pressure: 918mb (27.11in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being CO17-20
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm

[Hurrilurker]

If you can't get in through that link, try this one:

http://war.str3am.com:7550/

Click on the Listen link, that worked for me.

[wabbitoid]

If Ivan doesn't get off his butt and move, all of the models will be confoozed.

[ilmc172pilot]

what a monster....reminds me of the movie re animator....just keeps getting better

[Josephine96]

How big will Ivan get? we shall see..

[Mello1]

I notice all of these childish comments coming from all new posters. This is sad. Hopefully, many of you will come to recognize the general mood of this board over time and it consists of intelligent analysis, and opinions--weighing different options, and respecting others and listening because of how they feel. With that said, everything is shifting West and it will probably wind up between Mobile and Panama City when it comes to landfall, IMHO.

Oh come on now. If you want to have an impact on someone new, then simply explain why is isn't so in layman's terms. Leave the peanut gallery comments untyped.

Try counting to ten before you start.

[Stormtrack03]

I still see the landfall being in Florida in the long run, all the west movement is doing is changing the angle of landfall and when this storm will start turning NE, now likely over water.

[Matthew5]

This storm is starting to remind me of a Super Typhoon that formed in the Western Pacific about 3 weeks ago.

[Josephine96]

I saw this in the threads earlier about the track.. Do any of you think Ivan will be shifted to the right with it's path..?

It's been slowing down and sooner or later it'll start moving due north.. Just my opinion..

In my opinion.. anywhere between Sarasota and Cedar Key will have to deal with the wrath of this monster

[Brent]

It's rocking now. Most intense hurricane of the Millenium, Century, and Decade beating Isabel last year by one mb.

[Stormtrack03]

In the 48 - 72 hr time frame eventually it will be I think.

[seannymac]

Yes I do. I think this slow down in motion is indicating a shift in movement. I have a feeling that it will go NW, then N, then NE.

[logybogy]

It will be interesting to see what kind of damage will be on that island is if it gets hit by a Cat 5 170 mph storm.

It's an extremely rich island with mansions and extremely well constructed homes with some of the toughest building codes anywhere.

[margaritabeach]

at the risk of this post being deleted......it's really getting old.