Ivan: After Cuba, Gulf of Mexico

[donsutherland1]

Several days ago, some of the computer guidance--and not TPC--had attempted to take Hurricane Ivan through the Florida Straits to Florida's Atlantic coast or farther east. The GFS was one of those models.

Historic data showed that a disproportionate share of hurricanes that passed through or south of a position similar to Ivan's at 65.0°W ultimately entered the Gulf of Mexico. The same held true for 70.0°W and 75.0°W.

Last night, Ivan tracked to the west for an extended period of time. I still believe that Ivan will make a turn a la David though farther south and west than David.

Most recently, Ivan has mirrored the track of Hurricane Georges (1998) though at a lower latitude.

On another interesting note, it increasingly appears that Hurricane Ivan could cross Cuba at a point not from from where Hurricane Camille (1969) passed perhaps just to the east.

I believe Ivan's middle game is now underway and this has already all but sealed the fate that Ivan will cross western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico. A track through the Florida Straits or extreme southern Florida to the Atlantic does not appear likely.

This morning's computer guidance also shows a consensus of a Gulf track with a possible landfall on the Panhandle.

Given the computer models and use of Hurricanes David and Georges, and to a lesser extent Camille, for reference, I believe Hurricane Ivan will likely bypass the Greater Tampa area to the west.

For now, I see it passing through the following coordinates:

18.8N 80.0W
21.7N 82.5W
25.0N 83.9W

Moreover, I believe its point farthest to the west will be somewhere around 84.5°W +/- 0.3°.

Overall, I'm just a shade to the left of the TPC track through 25.0°N.

[donsutherland1]

The Canadian has continued to trend to the west.

Overall, I am not surprised about the model trend per se. The ridge has been a little stronger and more persistent and Ivan remains at a low latitude tracking generally west-northwest. This translates into a position farther west ahead of a likely turn for Ivan.

Moreover, earlier computer guidance notwithstanding, both a look at historical information for hurricanes passing at a latitude similar to Ivan at 65°W, 70°W, and 75°W strongly suggested that the earlier modeled ideas seen on a few runs showing Ivan's tracking across the Florida Straits into the Atlantic were highly suspect, particularly when one considered the synoptic setup.

Earlier today, I had referenced Camille as one of the analogs (as far as the track is concerned) in the mix at this time, though a lesser one:

On another interesting note, it increasingly appears that Hurricane Ivan could cross Cuba at a point not from from where Hurricane Camille (1969) passed perhaps just to the east.

I believe Ivan's middle game is now underway and this has already all but sealed the fate that Ivan will cross western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico. A track through the Florida Straits or extreme southern Florida to the Atlantic does not appear likely...

Given the computer models and use of Hurricanes David and Georges, and to a lesser extent Camille, for reference...

At this point in time, while a track along the lines of Camille (from extreme western Cuba onward) might not be the most likely scenario--I believe a track into the Panhandle remains more likely--this is a scenario that should not be ruled out altogether.

The key issue to be resolved is how far west will Ivan be when he makes his turn and I strongly believe he will make a turn unlike let's say Hurricanes Gilbert or Allen.

[rainstorm]

thanks for the info.