Floydbuster's 9th Ivan Forecast...

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 9
Saturday September 11, 2004 12pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Hurricane Ivan is a dangerous category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph... not 200 mph.

Ivan is moving basically west, and I expect a west-northwest to even northwest movement in 36 hours, followed by a due north movement after 48 hours. I am a little to the east of the NHC, but farther west than my last track.

Ivan might be Gilbert's little brother. That would mean one of Gilbert's parents were Russian... oh nevermind. Anyway, Ivan could become a category 5 hurricane after it clears the coast of Jamaica and heads towards Cuba. If it has a rapid intensification cycle, and drops 10-15 mb, it could get into the 150-160 kt range. I am forecasting a category 5 at the Cuba coast, then a weakening. I expect Ivan to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a category 4 and begin to move due north quicker. I REALLY think Ivan WILL make landfall as a category 4 hurricane. Even people reading this might notice... last two discussions by the NHC.... no longer mention the shear in the Gulf. Now even if they do in the future, I do not think Ivan will weaken greatly. This is unfortunate for Florida, who may soon need a recount on how many storms have hit this year. So, landfall as a category 4 hurricane on the Florida coast... what else is new?

NOTE: WE DO NOT KNOW IF IVAN WILL EXPLODE IN THE GULF LIKE CHARLEY DID... COULD THIS BE THE RUSSIANS GETTING BACK FOR US WINNING THE COLD WAR??? NO, IT IS THE ACTIVE CYCLE WE ARE IN AND WILL BE IN FOR YEARS TO COME....


12 HRS-- 19.0N-- 80.5 W-- 135 kt
24 HRS-- 20.0N-- 81.9 W-- 135 kt
36 HRS-- 21.3N-- 82.4 W-- 140 kt
48 HRS-- 23.0N-- 82.4 W-- 135 kt (OVER CUBA)
72 HRS-- 25.0N-- 82.5 W-- 130 kt
96 HRS-- 27.3N-- 82.5 W-- 125 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 30.0N-- 82.4 W-- 80 kt (INLAND)

http://www.freewebs.com/ivanthehurricane/ivan.JPG

[MortisFL]

good forecast...if that track verifies watch out west coast. All depends on the timing of that northward turn. This system is so big it could end up affecting alot of locations in its path.

[Anonymous]

Hopefully it does not hit Tampa head on.

[dennis1x1]

160 kts...wow...now that is some forcastin.

[canegrl04]

Holy crap! We're talkin 173-184mph

[Stormcenter]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 9
Saturday September 11, 2004 12pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Hurricane Ivan is a dangerous category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph... not 200 mph.

Ivan is moving basically west, and I expect a west-northwest to even northwest movement in 36 hours, followed by a due north movement after 48 hours. I am a little to the east of the NHC, but farther west than my last track.

Ivan might be Gilbert's little brother. That would mean one of Gilbert's parents were Russian... oh nevermind. Anyway, Ivan could become a category 5 hurricane after it clears the coast of Jamaica and heads towards Cuba. If it has a rapid intensification cycle, and drops 10-15 mb, it could get into the 150-160 kt range. I am forecasting a category 5 at the Cuba coast, then a weakening. I expect Ivan to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a category 4 and begin to move due north quicker. I REALLY think Ivan WILL make landfall as a category 4 hurricane. Even people reading this might notice... last two discussions by the NHC.... no longer mention the shear in the Gulf. Now even if they do in the future, I do not think Ivan will weaken greatly. This is unfortunate for Florida, who may soon need a recount on how many storms have hit this year. So, landfall as a category 4 hurricane on the Florida coast... what else is new?

NOTE: WE DO NOT KNOW IF IVAN WILL EXPLODE IN THE GULF LIKE CHARLEY DID... COULD THIS BE THE RUSSIANS GETTING BACK FOR US WINNING THE COLD WAR??? NO, IT IS THE ACTIVE CYCLE WE ARE IN AND WILL BE IN FOR YEARS TO COME....


12 HRS-- 19.0N-- 80.5 W-- 135 kt
24 HRS-- 20.0N-- 81.9 W-- 135 kt
36 HRS-- 21.3N-- 82.4 W-- 140 kt
48 HRS-- 23.0N-- 82.4 W-- 135 kt (OVER CUBA)
72 HRS-- 25.0N-- 82.5 W-- 130 kt
96 HRS-- 27.3N-- 82.5 W-- 125 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 30.0N-- 82.4 W-- 80 kt (INLAND)

http://www.freewebs.com/ivanthehurricane/ivan.JPG

Your track is too far east. They don't mention the shear but as you can see in the intensity forecast he never recovers after coming off of Cuba.

[Anonymous]

IF it rapdily strenthens. I am only forecasting 160 mph in Cuba.

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 9
Saturday September 11, 2004 12pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Hurricane Ivan is a dangerous category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph... not 200 mph.

Ivan is moving basically west, and I expect a west-northwest to even northwest movement in 36 hours, followed by a due north movement after 48 hours. I am a little to the east of the NHC, but farther west than my last track.

Ivan might be Gilbert's little brother. That would mean one of Gilbert's parents were Russian... oh nevermind. Anyway, Ivan could become a category 5 hurricane after it clears the coast of Jamaica and heads towards Cuba. If it has a rapid intensification cycle, and drops 10-15 mb, it could get into the 150-160 kt range. I am forecasting a category 5 at the Cuba coast, then a weakening. I expect Ivan to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a category 4 and begin to move due north quicker. I REALLY think Ivan WILL make landfall as a category 4 hurricane. Even people reading this might notice... last two discussions by the NHC.... no longer mention the shear in the Gulf. Now even if they do in the future, I do not think Ivan will weaken greatly. This is unfortunate for Florida, who may soon need a recount on how many storms have hit this year. So, landfall as a category 4 hurricane on the Florida coast... what else is new?

NOTE: WE DO NOT KNOW IF IVAN WILL EXPLODE IN THE GULF LIKE CHARLEY DID... COULD THIS BE THE RUSSIANS GETTING BACK FOR US WINNING THE COLD WAR??? NO, IT IS THE ACTIVE CYCLE WE ARE IN AND WILL BE IN FOR YEARS TO COME....


12 HRS-- 19.0N-- 80.5 W-- 135 kt
24 HRS-- 20.0N-- 81.9 W-- 135 kt
36 HRS-- 21.3N-- 82.4 W-- 140 kt
48 HRS-- 23.0N-- 82.4 W-- 135 kt (OVER CUBA)
72 HRS-- 25.0N-- 82.5 W-- 130 kt
96 HRS-- 27.3N-- 82.5 W-- 125 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 30.0N-- 82.4 W-- 80 kt (INLAND)

http://www.freewebs.com/ivanthehurricane/ivan.JPG

Your track is too far east. They don't mention the shear but as you can see in the intensity forecast he never recovers after coming off of Cuba.

But, I DO NOT have Ivan recovering. I just do not have it weakening AS MUCH over Cuba. Western Cuba is flat. And while it MAY weaken, not as much as it would eastern Cuba.

[wdst]

I have enjoyed seeing your previous forecasts as you seem to have been pretty much on the mark thus far with Ivan. One question though, you seem to be east what I am seeing on TWC, local Tampa tv, and the national hurricane center. What is it that you see bringing the storm further east (closer to the west coast & inland on the west coast) than the
other forecasters? thanks, David

[Anonymous]

I think when the weakness develops, it will move just due north, and I have been shifting west, but before I shift TOO FAR west, I will hold this track.

[Nana47]

Hopefully it does not hit Tampa head on.

I'll second that as I live in a Tampa 'burb.

[wdst]

Thanks, 50 miles east or west of the west coast can make a big difference in this thing. David

[Anonymous]

I think when the weakness develops, it will move just due north, and I have been shifting west, but before I shift TOO FAR west, I will hold this track.

Looks to me like your track will hold especially since its slowing down---I'd expect the NHC to come into better agreement with you