Even if in panhandle, pennsula is in right quad

[Anonymous]

Even if Ivan were to hit the Panhandle south of Tallahassee, most or all of the peninsula would see worse effects with high winds, flooding rains, and tornadoes than most of the panhandle west of Tallahassee as the worst weather is along and to the right of the track... When Frances hit S Fla, effects were felt big time even north of the Fla/Ga border--much further away than anyone on the peninsula would be from Ivan. So unless this storm makes a sharp turn and misses the state entirely, there is no good news for the storm strikken peninsula.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Even if Ivan were to hit the Panhandle south of Tallahassee, most or all of the peninsula would see worse effects with high winds, flooding rains, and tornadoes than most of the panhandle west of Tallahassee as the worst weather is along and to the right of the track... When Frances hit S Fla, effects were felt big time even north of the Fla/Ga border--much further away than anyone on the peninsula would be from Ivan. So unless this storm makes a sharp turn and misses the state entirely, there is no good news for the storm strikken peninsula.

I think most people only see landfall, not the whole scenario...The TS winds extend out 175 miles...that has to be taken into consideration! Also as you said east side= tornadoes!

[gtalum]

Speaking as an uneducated (meteorologically speaking!) layman from Sarasota, I'd rather be 100 miles to the east of this bad boy than watch the eye go overhead, even though thte east side is worse than the west side. Perhaps that is foolish thinking?

[Lindaloo]

Speaking as an uneducated (meteorologically speaking!) layman from Sarasota, I'd rather be 100 miles to the east of this bad boy than watch the eye go overhead, even though thte east side is worse than the west side. Perhaps that is foolish thinking?

Not foolish thinking at all!

[Brent]

Speaking as an uneducated (meteorologically speaking!) layman from Sarasota, I'd rather be 100 miles to the east of this bad boy than watch the eye go overhead, even though thte east side is worse than the west side. Perhaps that is foolish thinking?

That's true for a hurricane.

However, when Frances came through here as just a depression, the places that encountered the center faired much better(here) than places 100 miles east of here. We got some gusty winds and almost 3" of rain, but places in Eastern Georgia had downed trees, power outages, 5" of rain, and tornadoes.

[SwampDawg]

gtalum....the only foolish thinking at this point is staying with a storm such as this. Good luck to all, and we'll be praying for ya'll here in Louisiana.

[NC George]

When Charley blew through here, I was only 20 miles east of center, and got almost nothing. You could look on the radar summery and see a line where the massive rain fell, fortunately that line was a mile west of me.

[ColdFront77]

Even if Ivan were to hit the Panhandle south of Tallahassee, most or all of the peninsula would see worse effects with high winds, flooding rains, and tornadoes than most of the panhandle west of Tallahassee as the worst weather is along and to the right of the track... When Frances hit S Fla, effects were felt big time even north of the Fla/Ga border--much further away than anyone on the peninsula would be from Ivan. So unless this storm makes a sharp turn and misses the state entirely, there is no good news for the storm strikken peninsula.

Very, very, very good point! It is said so many times because those that never heard it before hear it for the first time: The center of the storm and it FOREcast track isn't the only place that will experience the storm system.

NO offense at all... I find it interesting why people think otherwise.

When Charley blew through here, I was only 20 miles east of center, and got almost nothing. You could look on the radar summery and see a line where the massive rain fell, fortunately that line was a mile west of me.

Same thing here, although I am 45 miles NW of Orlando. If 'he' was the size of Frances of even Ivan I would have had more than the light rain and the winds over the breeze to a gust or two that MAY have reached 40 mph.

[wxman57]

It is true that if Ivan follows the current forecast and heads north toward Apalachicola that the Peninsula will be in the right quadrant. The western Peninsula may be brushed by 45-55 mph winds with higher gusts, heavy rain, and tornadoes. But fortunately, the 60+ mph winds would remain offshore.

Now remember that those wind radii are for marine use only. Frictional effects reduce those wind radii significantly over land, perhaps by 25% or more. Also, the NHC is being a bit generous in the wind radii, according to HRD detailed analyses. The 35kt/39 mph winds were measured at closer to 140 miles from the center yesterday afternoon:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2 ... l04deg.png

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

However, just as easily as Ivan made that westward jog overnight, it could jjog to the east at any time over the next 3 days and plow right into the center of the western Peninsula. If I lived on the westrn Peninsula I might breathe just a TINY bit easier but I'd have my home boarded up and supplies purchased. Even 45-55 mph winds with gusts to hurricane force can do some significant damage.

[Anonymous]

When Charley blew through here, I was only 20 miles east of center, and got almost nothing. You could look on the radar summery and see a line where the massive rain fell, fortunately that line was a mile west of me.

Now it depends on the storm's size and structure--this is not a charley storm but closer to the size of Frances---Frances was about 4 times the size of charley and the bigger than Tx---Storm force winds/with hurricane gusts extend outward up to 175 miles east of the center while sustained hurricane force winds extend 60 miles out slightly larger than this map now ... http://www.skeetobite.com/FLHurricane/i ... eADV27.gif

[Josephine96]

It'll be interesting to see what kinda severe weather develops if the storm doesn't make a direct hit here..

[NFLnut]

Hey .. if I'm allowed to choose, I'll take the east side with all of its warts rather than another direct hit any day. I live in the Orlando area, and I had the NE eyewall of Charley and a tornado go through my house and then Frances blew about 75-95 mph for almost twelve hours. I'll take the current track or farther west anytime!

[Eyes2theSkies]

i agree nfl.