Will the storm hit Fla's west coast..?

[Josephine96]

That is the big question right now.. I still think it will.. I am not sure about this scenario with the Panhandle..

It's following a track eerily similar to Charley's..

The big question is when.. if at all.. Ivan makes a jerk to the right {NE}.. Everyone on the west coast should be very alert with this monster only a few 100 miles away

[TLHR]

This has been discussed in multiple threads.

Thanks.

[Agua]

Just unknown right now John. Everybody needs to keep an eye on it. LOL!! Like everyone here isn't studying every frickin' wobble.

[CFLCaneWatcher]

I am in agreeance with you Josephine. I still think, and from the very beginning, that this is our major Tampa Bay hurricane. I hope I am wrong!!!!

[Sanibel]

Our island is still full of debris and wreckage from Charley. It would be cruel for the mammoth recovery effort to be shredded by another even stronger storm on the same path.

I don't want to evacuate if I don't have to, but a sudden turn could be a real deadly threat.

Let's see what he does. I'm just going to hammer and brace plywood into that open roof vent now. I need a firm patch in there. No messing around.

Today we are trying to buy plywood but there are no guarantees. I still have the remnant plywood from last time, but I put it on the ground by the garage door for a dry walkway over the dirt. I also used a section of it for the roof patch. If we can't get plywood I'm going to have to get busy.

Today we are scrambling. Will try to wait in line at Lowes for a plywood delivery truck. Lowe's should have stepped up their plywood deliveries. Somebody should have at least brought some tractor trailer loads from up north where they have stocks.

I'll try to get the cover off the broken electric shutter, but I'm not sure if I can free it. If not, plywood again on the seaward french doors.

I'll have to screw the broken manual shutter back down by hand one crank at a time on the roller mechanism nub left after the assembly broke off. Of our three seaward shutters all three are broken. I think I can pull the 2 manuals down.

After these hardware issues are solved we then have to start thinking water, supplies, etc in case we stay.


Ivan's burst back to 155mph last night worries me about a repeat up here.


Back later...

[Josephine96]

I also think this will strike the Bay area or points south..

Even here inland we have a lot of debris from Charley and Frances still laying around..

I think the next 36 hours or so could be the most telling on this..

[SouthFLTropics]

There is one big difference in the future track of Ivan as compared to Charley. When Charley was approaching the GOM, TS Bonnie was moving towards the big bend and creating a larger hole in the ridge which seemed to steer Charley more to the right and into Punta Gorda. With Ivan there is no TS ahead of him to "weaken" the ridge substantially. With that said it is definitely not out of the question that Ivan could threaten the SW coast of Florida with a direct hit. It all depends on how strong the high remains. At this time it appears that Ivan will remain offshore and head to the Panhandle or big bend. That could definitely change in time depending on the position of the high. Do not let your guard down anywhere in Florida.

SouthFLTropics

[Josephine96]

Good point South.. anyone who lets their guard down may be taking a chance now..

[k-man]

I see no reason whatsoever in not trusting the NHC track. All the models are coming into agreement and drifting *west*, not east. I'm betting that they shift the track a little further west at 11am. Yesterday's NHC track showed a hit on the SW coast of Jamiaca. That appears unlikely now. The tiniest nudge to the left now amplifies greatly in the trajectory of the track north. When the subtropical ridge to the north weakens it appears to be creating a clear road due north for Ivan. This is great news for the Keys and the west coast of Florida. And being in Central Florida I'm thrilled that Ivan will be passing us by.

[Josephine96]

K-Man.. what kinda statement is that lol.. sorry.. But you don't know if this storm will not arrive here.. Nobody knows..

Just because a few of us still think it'll come this way.. doesn't mean it will either.. We just have to watch

[bwstg]

I see no reason whatsoever in not trusting the NHC track. All the models are coming into agreement and drifting *west*, not east. I'm betting that they shift the track a little further west at 11am. Yesterday's NHC track showed a hit on the SW coast of Jamiaca. That appears unlikely now. The tiniest nudge to the left now amplifies greatly in the trajectory of the track north. When the subtropical ridge to the north weakens it appears to be creating a clear road due north for Ivan. This is great news for the Keys and the west coast of Florida. And being in Central Florida I'm thrilled that Ivan will be passing us by.

Not so fast. I still think this will hit farther south than what the models show.

[kevin]

k-man, I think what you said was reasonable. If the NHC sees something to nudge it eastward, then I'll start really paying attention.

[kevin]

bwstg, any reason?

[k-man]

Josephine96,

I said that I'm confident in the NHC track. I have much more confidence in them than I do in about 98% of the "forecasts" made on this board. DerekOtt deserves real credit here. He's been doing a great job with his forecasts.

Overall, I enjoy reading a lot of what is on this board, I really do. But there are many, many people here who *appear* to want these storms to hit their area. There are people here who seem to get more and more excited as the storms draw nearer. And when they veer away from the area these people appear to almost be disappointed. After living through two of them, personally I'm sick of it. It's not fun and it's not exciting.

I also think it's actually okay for local mets to say that we "appear" to be in the clear. How is that irresponsible? Everyone in this area is as prepared as they're going to be. I think it's okay for the people in our area (central florida) to actually enjoy a Saturday for a change without being glued to a TV to see what the track is. Sure you need to keep an eye on it as it makes its way north. But should everyone in central Florida be boarding up the windows right now. No, I don't think that's necessary. And I'm actually glad that the local mets aren't hyping this storm to hit here because that would really suck.

[Josephine96]

True about the hype K-Man.. But.. well.. I don't know lol.. I just don't see this thing going to the panhandle..

[rbaker]

with this westward mvment in last 24 hrs, and going even slower now, ridge in atlantic, and ridge to the nw it has no where to go fast, just sort of drifting around, until that trough comes down from central us, then will it be far enough south to pick up ivan to go north. This is going to be another frances with these movements.

[Josephine96]

Frances? lol..

[chris_fit]

This is a Charley....

They are going to call left and north of Tampa, as they are now, and it's going to shift east. Just like with Charely... called landfall north and west.... and it shifted south and east. As the storm gets more and more north it wants to reccurve more and there won't e a strong enough ridge to help that.

I'm almost certain. You can easily see this on the WV loop, it has no where else to go.... I dont see this go to the panhandle.

[tronbunny]

True about the hype K-Man.. But.. well.. I don't know lol.. I just don't see this thing going to the panhandle..

it was just 18 hours ago that the GFS and BAMM, BAMD (and the weird A98E) had Ivan going over our heads in central FL at 112kts around midnight monday/tuesday.
I'll give it 24 hours before I feel any better, even then.....

[Josephine96]

Nice observation Chris.. as it's on a path similar to Charley's