New ECMWF track...

[AL Chili Pepper]

Looks like around Tallahassee in 120 hrs.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4090512!!/

[mobilebay]

That puts the GFDL, UKMET, in almost the same location. However, the NOGAPS, CMC, and ETA(for what it's worth) is a further west along the Panhandle. THE GFS is still outlier near Tampa, but even it is closing in.IMO

[HenkL]

The link Al Chili Pepper posted is for Frances, almost a week ago.
For Ivan this is the link for the newest 00Z output:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004091100!!!validtime_finder!step/

After landfall in the Florida Panhandle, the ECMWF expects a sharp turn to the right, bringing the Carolinas in the danger zone, and perhaps even moving Ivan into the Atlantic.

[frankthetank]

That looks *really* close to the west coast of Florida....what kind of winds would they see with a scenario like this...considering a cat3 intensity...anyone? I'm guessing atleast 100mph all the way up the coast...

[flair]

A eastern track with a second Carolina landfall would be a better event for NC. A western track would create a disaster of epic proportions in western NC. My parents have a river view after Frances that they have never had before.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

A eastern track with a second Carolina landfall would be a better event for NC. A western track would create a disaster of epic proportions in western NC. My parents have a river view after Frances that they have never had before.

thanks....

[Nimbus]

Looks as though Tampa and points south except for the keys would be beyond the 50 mile radius winds. Tropical storm force winds to catagory 1 typically. Storm surge would still be a problem in Tampa bay. Florida west coast should not let their guard down yet and folks along the north gulf coast that wrote this storm off need to think again.