I'm making the call now - Panhandle

[TPACane04]

Based on synoptics and path comparison to Charley, my call is FL Panhandle for Ivan's landfall.

Reasoning: Charley had the North tug of unusually strong large SE trough to pull it toward Fl penisula , then NNE into Port Charlotte.

Those same features will not be in play Monday/Tuesday...and although we will see the NW then N turn to due ridge weakness, storm will make 83-84 long and ride that train all the way in to coast.

My other player: GFDL had excellent call on 72-hour timing of Charley (landfall south of TB), and since we are in that same essentially time window now, (albeit tad slower with Ivan movement) the 6z run of GFDL backs up the above mentioned points.

Good luck Panhandle friends...I will stay with this call and let everyone else cry and moan every 6 hours when a new model run comes out.

[NorthWestFL]

Don't take this personal or anything.......but we'll pass.

[alicia-w]

Okay, but just to say the Florida Panhandle is using a pretty broad brush. It's 195 miles from Pensacola to Tallahassee.

[wxwatcher2]

alicia-w, that brings up an interesting fact.
Most people who live from Central florida to the South do not really have a good geographical concept of the florida panhandle.
I know I lived in florida for over 40 years before I ever even ventured west on I-10.....

Yes, the Panhandle is indeed a large geographical area.

[~SirCane]

Seeing these models shift West does not look good for this neck of the woods.

Guess it's our turn. : {

[ROCK]

Based on synoptics and path comparison to Charley, my call is FL Panhandle for Ivan's landfall.

Reasoning: Charley had the North tug of unusually strong large SE trough to pull it toward Fl penisula , then NNE into Port Charlotte.

Those same features will not be in play Monday/Tuesday...and although we will see the NW then N turn to due ridge weakness, storm will make 83-84 long and ride that train all the way in to coast.

My other player: GFDL had excellent call on 72-hour timing of Charley (landfall south of TB), and since we are in that same essentially time window now, (albeit tad slower with Ivan movement) the 6z run of GFDL backs up the above mentioned points.

Good luck Panhandle friends...I will stay with this call and let everyone else cry and moan every 6 hours when a new model run comes out.

AND I am making my call the United States of America....

[TPACane04]

Yes, the Panhandle is a wide brush to paint, but consider this...a due North path from Ivan into the Panhandle is easier to prepare for than a brush up 82/83 Long off the W Fl coast...which would case huge destruction from Naples to Cedar Key

If the Panhandle takes a direct hit from PCB or east, that is better in terms of less population density (sorry App-cola) and storm surge issues

A direct hit on pensacola from Cat 3 or higher causes major issues for alot of people as well...due to Pensacola, FWB and PCB all being on the east (strong) side of storm and dealing with storm surge

so best case is a weakening Ivan hitting in App-cola Bay area...not my official call, just painitng a picture for ya