Looks like a Charley scenario...

[sprink52]

with the two high pressure zones drawing Ivan between them and then sqeezing the storm north or north east rapidly. The direction of the storm is a function of the orientation of the gap between these two areas. As Ivan exits the north coast of Cuba, watch for any significant wobble or eye relocation. That is the point that is critical in determining the future course of the storm.
Just like the residents of Punta Gorda said"They said it was going to Tampa", we could find the residents of penninsular Florida making a similar statement after Ivan hooks right and comes ashore near Cape Sable or Flamingo and does his dance al the way up the state! "They said it was going to the panhandle". The reply would be "Yes, but you were always in the cone of error" I won't feel relaxed where I am untill I see Ivan north of 28 and west of 82. This is my first attempt at a forcast and I do not profess to know enough to make an official judgement on this but the idea seems plausable.

[Innotech]

cone of white, potential fright.

[Myersgirl]

Follow the Ivan track thus far, then enter the Charlie track Interesting

http://html.nbc6.net/sh/idi/weather/hur ... acker.html

[sprink52]

That my friend is Kooler than Cool.

[Josephine96]

I don't buy this panhandle scenario just yet.. I still think it'll come onshore on the west coast

[tronbunny]

get a load of that wild "wobble" around Jamaica that Charley did!

[Josephine96]

I think that'd be more of a movement than a wobble lol

[PTPatrick]

I certainly wouldnt let me gaurd down either just yet because hurricanes are fickle beasts. But I can say this...the randomness of nature would almost HAVE to go against 2 storms taking almost the exact same track in the same year. Also every indication thus far goes against it. Technically the model support for Charley going in between Tampa and Fort Meyers was there...but people ignored that. Now there is NO support from any models to turn this think south of Cedar Key...much less Tampa. In short, If this thing hit ANYWHERE south of Tampa you can turn me over and put me to bed because I am through.

[Cyclone Runner]

get a load of that wild "wobble" around Jamaica that Charley did!

Yes it is indeed very interesting seeing both these storms have a similar movement along the southern coast of Jamaica. This is similar to what happens with storms in the Pacific coming from the North into Fiji. Often they look like they will cross the Vanua Levu Coast but instead take a sharp jog along the coast to the west and then once they reach the end of the island resume their southern course. Super Cyclone Gavin was a classic Category 4 that took this unexpected sharp turn around the island. Vanua Levu is big but not quite as big as Jamaica but both are similar in a topographic sense. I think it may be related to forward speed. Over 20 knots forward speed, and they seem to plow across the islands but under 20 knots, some unexplained factors seem to make them often skirt the island coasts. Definitely a few PhD thesis here.

[roarusdogus]

the set up now and what was going on when Charley was around it COMPLETELY different. Charley had an unseasonably strong trough which picked it up and moved it NE rather quickly. There is no such trough this time around. The trough is in the western US and there is nothing but ridging in the eastern US. The synoptic set up is about as opposite as you can get.

[Anonymous]

The NHC dont sound too sure of a Fla Panhandle hit yet either---said the shift in models may be short term and due to the westward jog last nite...

Code: Select all

SOME OR ALL OF THE SHIFT COULD BE DUE TO THE
SHORT TERM WESTWARD WOBBLE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OR EAST OF ALL THE MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN IS CLOSER
TO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS.

[cape_escape]

Follow the Ivan track thus far, then enter the Charlie track Interesting

http://html.nbc6.net/sh/idi/weather/hur ... acker.html

I must be missing something...How do I enter Charleys track?

[Josephine96]

Interesting statement.. At least NHC admits they're not completely sold on a Pandhandle hit either..

[weatherwoman]

i dont know how to enter the charley track either. help please

[chris_fit]

the NHC needs to get rid of their red line in the middle bc its very misleading this far out.

[stormchazer]

I do not understand. The models are trending west. Why is the NHC still wanting to go east?

[Stormcenter]

I don't buy this panhandle scenario just yet.. I still think it'll come onshore on the west coast

Didn't you have enough with Charly and Frances?

[Brent]

Well... I don't have a clue where the heck this is going. I do think it's going to Florida, but right now I'm leaning towards a Panhandle( ) Big Bend area event. It'll give us a lot of rain and wind if that happens. We don't need rain, there's mushrooms all over the place and this storm is much stronger than Frances so the winds will be worse.

[Anonymous]

There is more of a chance with a gulf system to deviate east than there is to deviate west... Due to troughs being stronger/faster than forecasted a lot. And this system should slow a lot or even stall allowing the Ridge to break down/trough to sweep in and pick it up north and northeast. So I think landfall between Tampa and Cedar Key looks good--err bad if you dont want a landfall.

[MetroMike]

The NHC doesn't want to give the all clear to the west coast of Florida yet since there is always a chance of it making an unexpected turn. Its better to be conservative and not give a false sense of security to us.