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mobilebay · #1 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:18 am

What do you think this full degree "jog" to the west will do to the models. Remember, this "jog" was just beggining at 2400 when the 00Z models where ran.

#2 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:19 am

gfs saw it earlier

#3 Postby **MSRobi911** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:20 am

Mobile,

I don't have a clue, but I sure as heck don't want it at the MS/AL line...that is where Pascagoula is....go away Ivan, go Away....chant.....go away Ivan, go Away!

#4 Postby **NateFLA** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:25 am

I don't think all is dependant on this jog.

I think FL landfall will be primarily dictated by two things:

One: When the N,NEish turn happens, and
Two: The position/strenghth of the high over atlantic as Ivan approaches FL.

I think the second aspect is leaning in favor of a southern bias that may negate this west/sw jog, and thus it all becomes pivotal on the time of the turn.

We shall see.

Stratosphere747 · #5 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:29 am

Mobile, I don't think it would mean much of an adjustment unless it did it for another few hours...Remember the 2am disc still had it at WNW...

mobilebay · #6 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:33 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:Mobile, I don't think it would mean much of an adjustment unless it did it for another few hours...Remember the 2am disc still had it at WNW...

I agree. However, I think that 2AM WNW is a joke. I think the NHC threw themselves a bone on that one. Recon clearly indicated an almost due west movent from 00Z to 06Z.

mobilebay · #7 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:48 am

I tell you one thing it has had an effect on the 06Z ETA through 18H. It has it much further west and south about 150 miles (estimate).

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