Eclipse over, WNW movement resumed.

calidoug · #1 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:59 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Lockhart · #2 Postby **Lockhart** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:02 am

If this keeps up, the eye might never hit Jamaica at all. Amazing.

NorthGaWeather · #3 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:04 am

due west per recon

calidoug · #4 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:04 am

It appears to be tracing an outline of the island, about 20 miles offshore. Must be all the group prayers.

calidoug · #5 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:05 am

Not due west per vision. Compare 0345Z and 0645Z satellite frames.

NorthGaWeather · #6 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:06 am

from the last recon message it moved due west from the 2 am advisory. Recon doesn't lie my friend.

WeatherNLU · #7 Postby **WeatherNLU** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:07 am

calidoug wrote:Not due west per vision. Compare 0345Z and 0645Z satellite frames.

Use the MSFC tool. No way is it on the same WNW course it had been previously.

Lockhart · #8 Postby **Lockhart** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:08 am

They must be using some formula to determine the center, because to the naked eye, the center of Ivan clearly went a little North of West in those 3 hours. Perhaps the shape of the eye changed slightly, and their positioning reflects that. All the better, I suppose.

Windspeed · #9 Postby **Windspeed** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:08 am

...that is a more west trach than wnw. In fact, if you plot the past 7 hours, this storm has been virtually parellel to the south shoreline of Jamaica.

rtd2 · #10 Postby **rtd2** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:09 am

quote"It appears to be tracing an outline of the island, about 20 miles offshore. Must be all the group prayers."

called it...NO JAMAICA L/F

calidoug · #11 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:09 am

Gee... Maybe that's because 2AM != 0345Z

2AM = 0600Z.

Perhaps you should try *actually looking* at the 0345Z frame, and comparing with the 0645Z frame.

You'll see about a 290 motion if you do.

Lockhart · #12 Postby **Lockhart** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:11 am

Lol. There I went, coming up with a complicated reason for something that actually didn't happen. :-)

Agua · #13 Postby **Agua** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:11 am

Yeah, last six hours look about 280 - 290.

calidoug · #14 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:12 am

Sigh. The south shoreline of Jamaica is not a straight line.

It runs WNW from the southernmost point.

LowMug · #15 Postby **LowMug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:12 am

calidoug wrote:It appears to be tracing an outline of the island, about 20 miles offshore. Must be all the group prayers.

Yea must be...I wonder why all the Grenada prayer groups didn't work...

Let's not bring religion into this folks...purely science here

btsgmdad · #16 Postby **btsgmdad** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:13 am

If it keeps this kind of movement up it might make the Yucatan Channel. Didn't Joe Bastardi say something about Ivan getting to the Gulf without hitting Jamaica or Cuba?

NorthGaWeather · #17 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:14 am

Well actually the 11pm advisory compared to the 2am shows a slightly south of west motion. 17.5 N at 11pm and 17.4 at 2am. Recon was still 17.4.

calidoug · #18 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:14 am

Lockhart wrote:Lol. There I went, coming up with a complicated reason for something that actually didn't happen.

It did happen, at least for those special people who have a great need to see something other than reality. :lol:

calidoug · #19 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:17 am

All I'm saying is that from 3:30 ago through 30 minutes ago, the storm is moving about 285-290.

Lockhart · #20 Postby **Lockhart** » Sat Sep 11, 2004 2:17 am

From Calvin and Hobbes: "It's not denial. I'm just very selective about what I accept as reality."

Eclipse over, WNW movement resumed.

Eclipse over, WNW movement resumed.

From 3:45UTC to 6:45UTC...

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