000
URNT12 KNHC 110612
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/0612Z
B. 17 DEG 22 MIN N
77 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2425 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 020 DEG 138 KT
G. 290 DEG 016 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 10 C/ 3073 M
J. 17 C/ 3052 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO12-40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1.0 NM
P. AF963 1809A IVAN OB 09
MAX FL WIND 138 KT W QUAD 0607Z.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409110637
THE REAL NEW VORTEX (its on Index of /data/NHC)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
THE REAL NEW VORTEX (its on Index of /data/NHC)
Last edited by yoda on Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
This is real.
Intresting. 923mb in W quad....
Intresting. 923mb in W quad....
Last edited by NateFLA on Sat Sep 11, 2004 1:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
dennis1x1
-
Stratosphere747
- Category 5
- Posts: 3772
- Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
- Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
- Contact:
-
WeatherNLU
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 218
- Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:50 pm
ericinmia wrote:By that the storm has gone south since the last vortex!
Date/Time of Recon Report: Saturday, September 11, 2004 2:12:00 AM
Position of the center: 17° 22' N 77° 35' W
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, September 10, 2004 7:31:00 PM
Position of the center: 17° 11' N 76° 25' W
yikes..
-Eric
No Eric, that's north nearly .2. 17-11 to 17-22.
0 likes
It becomes complex....
In that image you can see that the High that was over texas, has moved over the western gulf. It appears to have (possibly temporarily, possibly permanent) strenghtend the ridge jsut north and west of Ivan. This has caused him to go west, with a little south bobble.
The Texas high is bridged with the Bermuda high which has become entwined with the azores high. The bridge between the two is not all that strong, however, the texan high appears to be strenghening the western periphery of it.
The trough over the south east US is attempting to dig south, but is meeting a good deal of resistance between the two highs. If you look at 40w and 60n you can see the ULL that has been the main controversy with this storm. Depending on how that Upper level low moves and degrades the bridge between the highs, the trough from the southeastern US will either be able to lift Ivan north, or miss him completely.
Thus far the northern periphery of the trough over the eastern US, and the ULL in the atlantic have forced the Bermuda high to retrograde, however, the bridge between the bermuda and texas highs has remained. If the ULL continues to move west under the westerly air currents the ridge is creating... that will lead to it breaking down, and allowing the trough to dig deeper and assimilate/join the ULL into it. This will also cause Ivan to be pulled north.
IF.... IF this ULL does not move fast enough, and the trough cannot break through the bridge aformentioned above. This storm will most likely be driven westward under neath the east building ridge emerging from texas/mexico. This scenario would drive the storm into mexico's Yucatan most likely.
I think i covered most of it... if you have any questions post away... i'm heading to bed in a few.
-Eric
In that image you can see that the High that was over texas, has moved over the western gulf. It appears to have (possibly temporarily, possibly permanent) strenghtend the ridge jsut north and west of Ivan. This has caused him to go west, with a little south bobble.
The Texas high is bridged with the Bermuda high which has become entwined with the azores high. The bridge between the two is not all that strong, however, the texan high appears to be strenghening the western periphery of it.
The trough over the south east US is attempting to dig south, but is meeting a good deal of resistance between the two highs. If you look at 40w and 60n you can see the ULL that has been the main controversy with this storm. Depending on how that Upper level low moves and degrades the bridge between the highs, the trough from the southeastern US will either be able to lift Ivan north, or miss him completely.
Thus far the northern periphery of the trough over the eastern US, and the ULL in the atlantic have forced the Bermuda high to retrograde, however, the bridge between the bermuda and texas highs has remained. If the ULL continues to move west under the westerly air currents the ridge is creating... that will lead to it breaking down, and allowing the trough to dig deeper and assimilate/join the ULL into it. This will also cause Ivan to be pulled north.
IF.... IF this ULL does not move fast enough, and the trough cannot break through the bridge aformentioned above. This storm will most likely be driven westward under neath the east building ridge emerging from texas/mexico. This scenario would drive the storm into mexico's Yucatan most likely.
I think i covered most of it... if you have any questions post away... i'm heading to bed in a few.
-Eric
0 likes
WeatherNLU wrote:ericinmia wrote:By that the storm has gone south since the last vortex!
Date/Time of Recon Report: Saturday, September 11, 2004 2:12:00 AM
Position of the center: 17° 22' N 77° 35' W
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, September 10, 2004 7:31:00 PM
Position of the center: 17° 11' N 76° 25' W
yikes..
-Eric
No Eric, that's north nearly .2. 17-11 to 17-22.
OMG
I am sorry, i am soo tired. I must of gotten them mixed up in my head.
<--- feeling really stupid right now! lol
Why won't this triangular block fit in the square hole?
I think i need to return to kindergarten!
-Eric
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy, hurricanes1234, riapal and 252 guests