Evening Ivan Forecast... slightly west

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html


same basic track, just a little farther to the west

[das8929]

150 kt???!!! 887 MB possible??Wow, this would be a wonder to watch as long as its that strong only on the sea.

[al79philly]

You really think this is going to hit Cuba at 165 mph? That's not good news at all....

[Stephanie]

OMG Derek! We're watching a disaster unfolding!

[PurdueWx80]

887 mb!!! Have you ever seen a model go so low w/ the pressure?

[NateFLA]

Just oh my God. 172mph winds.

[Foladar]

I'm sorry to ask, I know your swamped, may not even answer me: but would it be possible for someone to drop me their opinion(s)? I live in Florida City, about ~20 miles north of Key largo, and I'm unsure how our conditions here should be, I've not been thru a "major" 'cane, and I don't really want to leave unless it's necessary due to looters. Any opinions as to how our weather may be?

[Brent]

OMG...

*faints*

Foladar... on the current track(SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS!) the worst of the weather would occur west of you and you wouldn't see too much, but that is subject to change. Please don't let your guard down.

[das8929]

I highly doubt that this will get below 900. If it did that would be just OBSCENE. Anything below 920 is already crazily powerful.

[Dave C]

I'm sure you noticed that outflow channel currently north of Ivan. That is probably one reason for explosive dev. this eve. Do you think that channel will remain some time? Certainly a storm for the record books this is!

[Foladar]

OMG...

*faints*

Foladar... on the current track(SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS!) the worst of the weather would occur west of you and you wouldn't see too much, but that is subject to change. Please don't let your guard down.

So I should not worry much, but just keep an eye on the tv incase? How much winds do you think I'm suppose to get? I was hearing possible hurricane force, since I'm close to the keys..I dunno

[B-Bear]

I'm sorry to ask, I know your swamped, may not even answer me: but would it be possible for someone to drop me their opinion(s)? I live in Florida City, about ~20 miles north of Key largo, and I'm unsure how our conditions here should be, I've not been thru a "major" 'cane, and I don't really want to leave unless it's necessary due to looters. Any opinions as to how our weather may be?

If you have somewhere else you can go, it is absolutely insane for you to stay. I wouldn't normally say that, but you are so south in Florida that you have a heck of a drive to get far enough north to get away from this thing. If it looks like it's headed toward Florida after it comes off Cuba, my advice would be for you to leave. Best bet is to listen to your emergency management officials. If they say leave, then leave.

[Derek Ortt]

graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

I cannot totally rule out SE Florida from hurricane force winds and defintaely not TS winds. It is still likely that there will be some impacts. Key west needs a miracle as even with that track, they would still likely receive strong cat 1/weak 2 conditions, with a surge much higher than that from Georges

[Brent]

OMG...

*faints*

Foladar... on the current track(SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS!) the worst of the weather would occur west of you and you wouldn't see too much, but that is subject to change. Please don't let your guard down.

So I should not worry much, but just keep an eye on the tv incase? How much winds do you think I'm suppose to get? I was hearing possible hurricane force, since I'm close to the keys..I dunno

Just monitor it for now. Can't rule anything in or out. Even if it hits north of Tampa, you'll see some squalls with gusty winds as it passes the Keys.

[catzmeow]

What is the strongest quadrant of this storm at present? Is it the northeast, as seems to be standard?

[Foladar]

I'm sorry to ask, I know your swamped, may not even answer me: but would it be possible for someone to drop me their opinion(s)? I live in Florida City, about ~20 miles north of Key largo, and I'm unsure how our conditions here should be, I've not been thru a "major" 'cane, and I don't really want to leave unless it's necessary due to looters. Any opinions as to how our weather may be?

If you have somewhere else you can go, it is absolutely insane for you to stay. I wouldn't normally say that, but you are so south in Florida that you have a heck of a drive to get far enough north to get away from this thing. If it looks like it's headed toward Florida after it comes off Cuba, my advice would be for you to leave. Best bet is to listen to your emergency management officials. If they say leave, then leave.

Well, with Frances we had gusts over 40 mph (and that was all the way up there in Palm Beach) and several inches (4 inches maybe, im not sure) of rain..I can gurantee we'll be evacuated soon, we flood very easy in the area. Where I would be going is Orlando though, a long ways away..4 hours or so when the roads aren't crowded too much

[rtd2]

Dereck I agree in part with your thinking but I think Gilbert Will remain the Granddaddy of atlantic canes! just dont hink IVAN will get below 910 MB...but any things possible. Local mets still not talking much about ridge I posted on yesturday BUT atleast one local met in N.O. is not BUYING into NHC's track! ... I'm sticking to original thought between N.O. TO P'COLA! Thanks for keeping us updated...take care

[MiaMom]

Well, Jeez, I am planning to be in a hotel out by the Miami airport for Ivan. What do you all think of that? Thanks for your opinion! Much appreciated....

[Derek Ortt]

I dont think this will get down to Gilbert's level either, though I would not be totally surprised if it were to do so

[B-Bear]

If you read Derek's forecast, he says in there that the model is forecasting the 887 mb pressure, but he doesn't think it will get that low.