Models Wide Right vs. Wide Left

[tropicstorm]

Looks like we might get a bit of a right movement with the 11 pm advisory but, I've been thinking about something all day & would like some feedback -

With regards to this persistent NHC forecast track bringing Ivan just to the west of Tampa Bay -

Is this really where the NHC thinks Ivan will actually track?

-OR- (and what I think is more likely)

There really isn't a lot of model consensus with Ivan like there was with Frances. Most all of the models with Frances were in very good agreement (even days out) for a south-central peninsula hit. With Ivan, you've got the wide righters - BAMM & GFS with UKMET & Euro being right of center. Then there are the NOGAPS & FSU models as wide lefters. GFDL is the NHC baby & right up the middle (Tampa).

So, here's the question:

Does the NHC really think Ivan is destined for a Tampa Bay area hit or are they just buying the GFDL & doing the statistical probability center of cone thing as an average of all of the wide right & wide left models?[/b][/u]

[Rainband]

No offense but I will go with the Official track and hope it doesn't verify BTW where are you located?? I don't see your location in the avatar

[spaceisland]

there is some "safety" in doing the center of statistical center of probability, as you suggest tropicstorm, especially that far out in time. Another possibility is that the right-of-track models are being given less weight due to skewing factors for those particular models which the NHC has taken into account.

[tropicstorm]

For Rainband -

I'm located in Lake Mary, Seminole county. I assure you, after Charley & Frances - my implication is not a -removed- thing. I'll be glad to take a miss on Ivan, thank you very much.

I was just thinking a lot throughout the day that the NHC probably does not have a real definitive forecast track to the Tampa Bay area - that quite probably, this persistent 2-day track is a center of cone statistical probability based on an averaging of right & left models. True or not?

[rbaker]

actually up to 72hrs before frances hit fla the gfdl was right of track and the gfs was left. Most of the mets on this site have said the nogaps, canadian, and euro did the best on frances. GFDL is usually pretty good with majors, but consistantly tpc is going to go middle of the road with models.