Ivan Advisories

Foladar · #3661 Postby **Foladar** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:52 pm

so it will not make landfall on the east coast then?

Foladar · #3662 Postby **Foladar** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:52 pm

and how do you feel Miami / Homestead / Florida City (take your pick) will be impacted by this 'cane? I live in Florida City, but if you don't know that, I used larger cities as it begins.

#3663 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:53 pm

huricanwatcher wrote:talk about a delayed responce............. gezzzzz

server probsssssss

chris_fit · #3664 Postby **chris_fit** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:53 pm

most likely not.... imo... key west, and naples north need to be ready

chris_fit · #3665 Postby **chris_fit** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:54 pm

Miami should be ok.... maybe some tropical force winds and heavy rain

Foladar · #3666 Postby **Foladar** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:54 pm

well I live about ~20 miles from Key Largo, an FYI..and I know these are all based upon your opinion/prediction .. just want to mention incase someone thinks else..you think we'll be ok?

edit: ~20 miles north, that is

chris_fit · #3667 Postby **chris_fit** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:54 pm

you should be ok.... as always keep your eyes glued to the TV and this board in case something changes.

Scott_inVA · #3668 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:54 pm

AJC3 wrote:...OK OK...before y'all start calling me Mr. Smarty-pants...all that math gobbledygook means is that you need a fall rate >24MB/24hr north of 45N and <24MB/24hr south of 45N. At least that's what I remember - If anyone cares to dig it up, feel free to correct me on this.

Hey Mr. Smarty-pants :wink:

Didn't mean the concept was unscientific...just the phraseology.
Not many Mets go on tv to talk about a bomb of HAT in February.

#3669 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:55 pm

And you couldn't pick a worse path in my opinion, as Ivan's right front quad looks as though it will pass to the left of Kingston on the S coast, left of Montego Bay on the NW coast, with the eye passing pretty much directly over Negril on the SW coast.

Say a prayer for Jamaica. Another dark day for a beautiful country with an already sad history.

Coldfront · #3670 Postby **Coldfront** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:55 pm

Prayers definitely continuing to be sent for those in Ivan's way. :cry:

cloud_galaxy · #3671 Postby **cloud_galaxy** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:55 pm

Radio Power 106 says looting is starting already in Kingston. People have been confronted by gangs of 20 young men with machetes.

Looks like the state of emergency doesn't help a lot...

jabber · #3672 Postby **jabber** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:57 pm

Boy could I redo that site....

Lockhart · #3673 Postby **Lockhart** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:57 pm

Fodie77 wrote:
Matthew5 wrote:
Fodie77 wrote:
Innotech wrote:winds will pick up soon. 150-155 mph borderline Cat 5 on Jamaica landfall looks likely

I pray to God you're wrong, but it does seem more and more likely at this point.

Who do you think is doing this??? Thats right its God.

You're absolutely right. But prayer can't hurt can it? I'm sure he'd listen to both sides of the story.

Seems like you must think God awfully perverse if he "likes" listening to a bunch of innocent people he's doomed to death and destruction praying fruitlessly for his mercy.

Anonymous · #3674 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:58 pm

A bunch of animals in that country, I see. Nice place to visit, I bet.

#3675 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:58 pm

LOL you all are funny...

What DT is saying is...

-He is throwing out the models...
-The storm is heading more NW now, and he predicts after Jamaica it to turn more.
-He Disputes the models bringing the storm into the far western cuba.
-He believes the synoptic data to point to the storm "turning north along 79, 80, 81, or 82 west"
-He said he does not see this storm landfalling any further north than Tampa.
-He believes this is a serious threat to southeast fla.
-Virginia and the carolinas could have this storm sitting on top of them eventually for three plus days... intense flooding.

There might have been a couple other minor details... but that is the jist of it.
He explains his thoughts on each model and backs them up with proof.
Remember DT is VERY good at what he does, and makes very good long range forecasts week+ in advance and when he is wrong he states it immediately. I trust him greatly.

He is the king of synoptic data, and the models are not being very reliable with this storm because of the complexity of the situation... so i would trust what he says for he can read synoptic data better than most anyone.

On a side note... it is interesting how cuba posted hurricane warnings only for the east, and central... mabye their met office sees something too? That is where DT belives the storm will cross also.
-Eric

windyinnc12 · #3676 Postby **windyinnc12** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:59 pm

Don't count on much if any disruption of Ivan as he traverses Jamaica. There is quite the debate on the effects of Jamaica's mountians and the degradation of Hurricanes as they pass by.

Coldfront · #3677 Postby **Coldfront** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:59 pm

#3678 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:00 pm

ericinmia wrote:LOL you all are funny...

What DT is saying is...

-He is throwing out the models...
-The storm is heading more NW now, and he predicts after Jamaica it to turn more.
-He Disputes the models bringing the storm into the far western cuba.
-He believes the synoptic data to point to the storm "turning north along 79, 80, 81, or 82 west"
-He said he does not see this storm landfalling any further north than Tampa.
-He believes this is a serious threat to southeast fla.
-Virginia and the carolinas could have this storm sitting on top of them eventually for three plus days... intense flooding.

There might have been a couple other minor details... but that is the jist of it.
He explains his thoughts on each model and backs them up with proof.
Remember DT is VERY good at what he does, and makes very good long range forecasts week+ in advance and when he is wrong he states it immediately. I trust him greatly.

He is the king of synoptic data, and the models are not being very reliable with this storm because of the complexity of the situation... so i would trust what he says for he can read synoptic data better than most anyone.

On a side note... it is interesting how cuba posted hurricane warnings only for the east, and central... mabye their met office sees something too?
-Eric

thank-you thank-you thank-you!! :wink:

das8929 · #3679 Postby **das8929** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:01 pm

Wow, it is rapidly deepening. Wouldnt be surprised for next advisory to be 150.

#3680 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 6:01 pm

What's really scray is that he's still not as symmetrical as he could be - the NW side isn't as
cool on IR as the SE side. Were that the case, we probably would be close to 920mb or less!

What a monster!

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