NEW INFORMATION - The FSU Super Ensemble Model Trends WEST.

[~SirCane]

200 miles West of Pensacola? What? Who forecasted that.

[NorthGaWeather]

It seems your wrong on the track also. 200 miles west of Pensacola I don't know where you got that info.

[washington]

I am a student in the department and the model takes it across the big bend area.

[PTrackerLA]

Here's to hoping that Ivan follows a predictable track until ultimate landfall. Don't want this thing stalling out in the gulf and make people start guessing. Besides they've pumped up Florida so much for this one I worry about residents further west who might have blown it off already.

[BayouVenteux]

OK my last post on this.. I was just trying to straighten out a rumor, a bad rumor.. Everyone believe what you want.. If the storm falls 200 miles west of Pennsacola I will eat crow..

Hey, if it landfalls 200 miles west of Pensacola, I'll stuff the S.O.B. crow down your @*%#in' throat myself!

[CFL]

I believe I heard it was 200 miles *east* of Pensacola. Several other models are now showing the same area, I believe.

[AlexiBlue]

BayouVenteux, four smilies do not make that message any less rude. Can we play nice even if we wildly disagree? I certainly don't want the nasty mean Frances vibe re-appearing in this forum again.

[karenfromheaven]

This debate only makes me more convinced that the FSU data should be made available to the public. I'm disappointed by the fact it is kept secret. Anyone know why this is? WJHG met Jason Kelly in his discussion last night talked about model results he knew about but could not reveal. He said he was even prohibited from mentioning the model's name on the air!!!

Baffled in Panama City, Karen

[TheWriteIdea]

Karen,

I agree with you, especially when it comes to public safety. Let 'em make their money the rest of the year...but when a disaster is in the making, information should be freely shared.

Renae

[CFL]

Karen, I agree with you wholeheartedly. Why keep this information secret? I know it's an ensemble of models. Is is just assumed that hobbyists cannot interpret the results correctly?

[alicia-w]

Please consider my rude "Jason Kelly is a weenie" statement publicly retracted. Mea culpa.

[wxman007]

Nice to know I am being watched....would I be a Ballpark or an Oscar Mayer?

The FSU SENS is a public-private partnership where the government has invested research dollars to FSU for the creation of the model. One stipulation of the deal (as I understand it) is that the data is not to be shared outside the FSU and NHC communities (in fact, it is my understanding that the Local NWS field offices don't even have access). You can BUY access to it if you have a need, but it is prohibitively expensive for the average user (my station can't afford it). There is a concern within the NHC community that yes, the public seeing this type data could dilute the offical forecasts from NHC...I don't really agree, but they paid for it, and it belongs to FSU, so they can keep it private if they like.

Jason Kelley
Chief Meteorologist (and Parrot)
WJHG-TV, Panama City Beach, FL

[gatorbabe79]

It's absurd to withhold anything that could impact those in the path of something of this magnitupe. C'mon hackers, get us in there!!!

[lilyv]

When I lived in Fla, I watched WJHG and thought that Jason Kelly was a terrific met. Niceville doesn't have any TV stations at all, so having someone in Panama City that covered tropical weather so well was appreciated.

Guess everyone has their own opinion.

[BayouVenteux]

BayouVenteux, four smilies do not make that message any less rude. Can we play nice even if we wildly disagree? I certainly don't want the nasty mean Frances vibe re-appearing in this forum again.

Um...actually, the context, and the reason for the smilies...and the 2-count 'em-2 winks...was that 200 miles west of Pensacola is hmmm, how can I put this so you'll understand the spirit in which it was intended...oh, I know...200 miles west of Pensacola is essentially on top of my house.

There was no disagreement there, only the humor I intended. Sorry the 4 icons and customary symbolic substitution for actual profanity weren't enough to make it obvious. That ought to do it this time.

Too bad there's not an appropriate icon for dry sarcasm as well.

[TheWriteIdea]

For the record, I hunted down what "Clark," the FSU met actually said:

"Sorry, but you're getting some wrong information again. The Superensemble has never called for a landfall west of Pensacola; in fact, the 12z run today is the first one that even brings it to landfall...and I'll tell you this much: it's 200+ miles from Pensacola, and not west.

The FSU Superensemble has consistantly been on the left hand side of the track guidance. The NHC official is almost directly over the GFDL, the ensemble mean, and the GUNA (GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN) consensus. Both have track errors from Frances of just 150mi. at 5 days, a very low error and both by far the best. FSU Superensemble says Panhandle, NHC says Tampa...we'll see what happens.

But I can assure you and everyone out there that it does not say west of Pensacola, and never has."


This is from about 2pm today.

Renae

[wlfpack81]

Hahah alicia-w..

Wow small world isn't it? Gotta be careful what you say on messgae boards b/c you never know who's browsing or posting.

[Ripopgodazippa]

I had a look at the latest run. Someone is confusing Pensacola with Apalachicola. And it even looked a smidge east of that.

[FritzPaul]

I think the rumor started from a poorly worded 5am EDT Discussion.

In it the NHC said:

THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER
WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF
FLORIDA.

I MAYBE WRONG, but I think they meant western Florida and not "west of Florida".

[hesperhys]

here is a short article on the superensemble:

http://www.research.fsu.edu/scicol/3/teest.html