The cone has narrowed...

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Only fl and ga in it now....

[yoda]

Huh? Where'd you see this?

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

TWC

[quickychick]

Yeah, where did you see this, I didn't think they changed track predictions at the intermediate advisories....

eta: ohh, TWC, never mind.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Yeah, where did you see this, I didn't think they changed track predictions at the intermediate advisories....

eta: ohh, TWC, never mind.

I did'nt either but thats what they showed??

[Josephine96]

LOL.. oh boy.. not so good..

[yoda]

Hmm.. we will see.

I agree QuickyChick, but the 5 PM adv should have the track shifted east some...

[Josephine96]

well.. lets just wait and see what the 5pm track says

[quickychick]

Yeah, where did you see this, I didn't think they changed track predictions at the intermediate advisories....

eta: ohh, TWC, never mind. :P

I did'nt either but thats what they showed??

If I understand correctly, TWC is showing *their own* predicted path, *not* that of the NHC.

But I could be wrong.

[Stormtrack03]

SC still in the cone area based on NHC track.

[dhweather]

It looks like the west wobble is over, now lets see if he resumes course or wobbles north.

[alicia-w]

What cone ever had anything besides Georgia and Florida?

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

What cone ever had anything besides Georgia and Florida?

The cone narrowing means it does not cover anything but fl, ga.

Yesterday it was showing more GOM (al) in the cone, today it does not extend past the panhandle

[Downdraft]

TWC will NEVER go against the NHC. They report the weather they don't forecast it. If you like the MRF go work for em. John Hope would speak him mind Steve (that's good news) Lyons is a 100% NHC party loyalist. Good thing too the NHC does a darn good job!

[chicagopizza]

The only cone I want my face in is one with a scoop of pistachio ice cream on top. Frances and her tornado buddies were enough to last me for a good long while. It's still early, though. Still could change.

[Anonymous]

To me it doesn't look as if Ivan gets into the Gulf it looks like a NW trend towards MS, LA, & TX would be futile just by looking at the water vapor loop. To me that track is out. Ivan would have a difficult time going west/NW of 90 degrees, unless he stays far south, Yucatan way moving west towards Mexico. That doesn't seem likely.
The strong ridging to the east of Florida is certainly pushing SW into the state. It is narrowing the cone unless Ivan stalls or weakens greatly. The weakness and moisture is left in the Gulf is NE to SW and to me that means a N to NE track across a portion of the eastern gulf.
As the UKmet almost mimics the 11 AM NHC track the 5 PM now will be interesting,
Mike

[Stormcenter]

Only fl and ga in it now....

Actually the cone has expanded westward based on
the 5pm advisory.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Only fl and ga in it now....

Actually the cone has expanded westward based on
the 5pm advisory.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

The cone I was refering to was TWC cone....It was really skinny @ 2pm!

[greeng13]

i wouldn't be so quick to say narrowed to just fla/ga...

TWC just showed the cone and reporter (not sure her name...the african american lady) mentioned it could just skirt the SE of fla and then make its way toward us...granted that is just taking into account the far eastern edge of the cone but stranger things have happened

[FritzPaul]

Here's a link to WWL's weather forum addressing TWC's forecasts:

http://www.wwltv.com/cgi-bin/bi/discuss ... apsed&sb=5