Wobble

[feederband]

I know how everyone hates to talk about wobbles. But did it just take one to the sw

[Air Force Met]

No...that is just an illusion. However, the radar from Jamaica shows that this system is moving more on a 290-295 track. If this continues...the eye will move just along the southern coast of Jamaica and the eyewall will rake the southern coast. Doesn't look like it will move right over the island at this time...but along the southern part. Assuming it doesn't wobble back to the north...which it may do.

[Air Force Met]

Update: The last hour and 15 minutes of the radar have it moving at about 280.

[Nimbus]

Well if we start to see an increase in speed on that new heading maybe it will be more than a wobble?

[kevin]

Where is the Jamacia radar online, afm?

[Kal]

Hey AF Met, generally speaking, at what point do you typically make the leap from wobble to trend? Is there set criteria, or is it subjective to the forecaster?

[goodlife]

For a while this morning watching the radar...I thought...wow, looks like it might pass to the north of Jamaica...but in the last few hours...it looks like it may skirt the southern edge of Jamaica...looks like a definite wobble to the west over the last couple of hours.

[MannyG]

looks like a definite wobble to the west over the last couple of hours.

Or it's interacting with one final surge to the southwest of the High above him.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Air Force Met]

Hey AF Met, generally speaking, at what point do you typically make the leap from wobble to trend? Is there set criteria, or is it subjective to the forecaster?

It is subjective to the forecaster or NHC. If the NHC is forecasting a turn to the right, and it starts...then it is called a movement much earlier than if the wobble goes against the forecast. The former may be called the new movement in a couple of hours. The latter may take 6-12 hours.

The link for the radar is:
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp