Action in the Bay of Campeche....

Johnny · #1 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:04 pm

From the Brownsville, Texas NWS............

LONG TERM...GFS MODEL HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
86 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...THERE MAY BE SOME POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.

southerngale · #2 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:05 pm

Doesn't GFS stink though?

Josephine96 · #3 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 09, 2004 3:05 pm

Just what us Gom'ers don't need is another system..

#4 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:13 am

And taking a break from the All Ivan All the Time thread ... I notice that the GFS 0z and 6z runs still spin up a low pressure system in the Bay of Campeche next week.

This has been a consistent feature for several days now in the GFS run, if anyone is buying. Something else to watch I guess.

tdess02 · #5 Postby **tdess02** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:36 am

This is something that the Houston Mets have been quietly talking about for several days. We just have to watch and wait.

#6 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:37 am

Portastorm wrote:And taking a break from the All Ivan All the Time thread ... I notice that the GFS 0z and 6z runs still spin up a low pressure system in the Bay of Campeche next week.

This has been a consistent feature for several days now in the GFS run, if anyone is buying. Something else to watch I guess.

Tis the season to be SCREAMING! :lol:

#7 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:40 am

Yeah, after a piece of the current trough pinches off it should back into the Gulf. It would probably be weak enough that a low could form at it's periphery without much shear to rip it apart. LOL...this morning's Eta actually has it deeper (by 1 mb) than Ivan in 84 hours. (Note...it also takes Ivan over the FAR western tip of Cuba then much further west into the Gulf as it builds the ridge strongly to the east, and has the upper low in the Gulf a bit further west than the other models)

#8 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:44 am

Hey Purdue, you seem to be watching the ETA carefully judging from your other posts ... how well has it performed in a 24-48 hr time period with tropical systems.

I know it is not a tropical model per se, just curious about its performance with Frances and Charley and such.

#9 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:50 am

You know, I don't remember so I'll have to find some archived model data and let you know later. It has a finer resolution than the global models, so it can work w/ the smaller details important to a storm like this a little better. I don't necessarily trust it completely since it has a 1000+ mb storm throughout. Also, and this is probably the most important thing, the Eta's domain doesn't even begin until 20N...so the storm isn't actually on the map yet. Once Ivan gets north of that it could be trusted a little more.

HouTXmetro · #10 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:54 am

Hey isn't the ETA the same model that developed a closed LOW in the Gulf right after Charlie. As I recalled that LOW never showed up. Are any other models developing a Low in the BOC besides the ETA?

#11 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 10:55 am

Like I said earlier .. the GFS also. Not sure what the Euro or UKMET or Canadian models are saying though. I will leave that to the pro mets on our board.

#12 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:01 am

My meteorologically novice eyes see the indications on the 06z and 12z ETA runs, but that scenario seems a MAJOR stretch considering the current synoptic, btw, what mets are suggesting this? I try to scan the NWS AFD's across the region on a pretty regular basis and have seen no mention of any BoC development...was it TV guys?

#13 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:02 am

The Eta's low is more in the Gulf...and it has stronger upper energy than any other model I've seen. The GFS has a surface low in the BOC...but it appears off and on. I don't recall the Eta forming a closed low in the Gulf after Charley...who knows. I'm not saying I trust the Eta here...I think it's funny that it has a stronger low than Ivan in the SW Gulf. And like I said...it's southern domain begins at 20N so Ivan isn't even in it's initialization yet.

#14 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:06 am

Thanks Purdue .. I was just curious about the ETA and its performance with tropical systems as they get close to the US mainland.

Bayou ... wasn't TV, the Brownsville, Corpus Christi, and Houston NWS mets have mentioned this off and on the last few days in several forecast discussions.

I don't think it is a major concern yet but something to watch for.

HouTXmetro · #15 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:22 am

The Eta's low is more in the Gulf...and it has stronger upper energy than any other model I've seen. The GFS has a surface low in the BOC...but it appears off and on. I don't recall the Eta forming a closed low in the Gulf after Charley...who knows. I'm not saying I trust the Eta here...I think it's funny that it has a stronger low than Ivan in the SW Gulf. And like I said...it's southern domain begins at 20N so Ivan isn't even in it's initialization yet.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... t=eta+gulf
:uarrow:

That is the thread I was talking about where the ETA developed a no show low in the GOM.

Josephine96 · #16 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:25 am

If it develops.. for my sake.. Let it stay over there.. and be a weak TS at most

Action in the Bay of Campeche....

Action in the Bay of Campeche....

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