Synoptic pattern...

[ericinmia]

I was talking about this yesterday as it changed slightly...
This morning i you can tell what was occuring much more...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html
That shows the steering currents...
-The High over mexico/texas is strengthening and nudging east into the gulf.
-The ULL in the atlantic basin has strengthened, and moved around the southeast periphery of the Bermuda high.
-The ULL above has disrupted the flow of the high.
-The bermuda high has moved ene.

The effect this high had on driving Ivan westerly is going to deminish throughout the day, with a more northward turn soon. When this turn occurs will mean whether it goes east of Florida, into Florida, or around to the gulf coast.

Here is a sat. loop of Ivan, with an overlay of the NHC track... Ivan is slightly north of the track as he was doing last night. I am still sticking with my prediction that this storms eye will pass across the mid to northeastern section of Jamaica. The storm has slowed as i thought... although i was predicting 8-10... close though. The reason for this slow down is the weakening of the stearing currents north of it. It is also undergoing some shear currently... however this shear should subside now, and as long as the storm does not head north now... it should not encounter much in the way of shear on its path toward florida.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html

-Eric

Edit:
Has anyone seen DT's thoughts on Ivan as of late last night.... here is his forecast track. Scary huh? Everyone should be preparing.
http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/ivan/sept10/11pm.gif

[jpigott]

any mets want to comment on this? it appears to me that due to the angle of approach Ivan is taking at Florida will make a giant difference on where the brunt of the impact is felt. IF this thing starts to take a N turn at 79 bad news for east coast of FL, 80 right up the gut of FL (everglades), 81 SW coast of FL, 82 W coast/panhandle. Maybe i'm wrong, but i feel as if a wobble here or there with Ivan could make more of a pronouced difference with where this thing ends up than say Charley (Tampa v. Port Charolette)

[ericinmia]

I agree... that is why everyone should be prepared... a wobble here or there, and it could be anywhere from the Bahamas to the gulf. The key is when the northward turn begins...
-Eric

[Stormcenter]

I agree... that is why everyone should be prepared... a wobble here or there, and it could be anywhere from the Bahamas to the gulf. The key is when the northward turn begins...
-Eric

This is from the 11am NHC discussion.


but...it becomes
uncertain after the hurricane crosses Cuba when guidance shows that
the

hurricane could continue over the Gulf of Mexico or could turn
north-northeast over Florida

. In fact...this has been the case for
the past couple of days. The official forecast does not favor one
scenario more than the other

[jpigott]

excuse me while I rant, i'm a little upset with my office in WPB. Most everybody here was in a panic yesterday with Ivan being a cat5 and headed toward FL, they were even going to have the computer guy come in again and take out the server. Now it seems that everyone is nonchalant about the whole thing, no preparations are going to be made as of right now. Bottom line is we are still in the "danger cone." No one has a really good hold on what Ivan will do 48 hours from now

[das8929]

It annoys me how people react to a Cat 5 differently than a Cat 4. 145 mph storm will do similar damage as a 160 mph storm. Its just the fact that 5s are so rare that people overreact to them.

[tronbunny]

It annoys me how people react to a Cat 5 differently than a Cat 4. 145 mph storm will do similar damage as a 160 mph storm. Its just the fact that 5s are so rare that people overreact to them.

Please add cat 2 and 3 to that.
"run-of-the-mill" cat 1, 2, 3 is still potentially devastating.
The only difference I see is odds of severe damage.
Also, the size of the storm would increase the odds for each of those levels.
The Saffir-Simpson scale is based on points.
Compare it to a shotgun...
Would you rather be shot at by a 20gauge vs. a 12gauge?
How far away?
How short is the barrel?
Double or single barrel for each?

Look it up if you don't know. That'll take your mind off of Ivan for a little bit.

[~SirCane]

This thing could end up as far as Mobile depending on how far West it gets.

Remember Earl in 1998 went much further East than was Forecasted and caught Panama City a bit off guard.

[Josephine96]

Hopefully everyone in Fla is watching closely.. I know I am

[Canelaw99]

Hey eric - how accurate was DT with the actual track of Frances???? His forecast track is a bit worrisome...

[miamijaaz]

It annoys me how people react to a Cat 5 differently than a Cat 4. 145 mph storm will do similar damage as a 160 mph storm. Its just the fact that 5s are so rare that people overreact to them.

Yep, that's the down-side of the 4 and 5 day forecasts. It is also a by-product of the flip-flop that goes on sometimes between advisories. I think perhaps it is sometimes just better to choose a track and stay with it until something dramatically changes that moves the models one way or the other.

[caneweary]

Newbie question: I understand that when Ivan makes his turn impacts the landfall time (i.e. the further south the turn begins the sooner he hits FL), but are Mets at all worried about Ivan picking up speed and possibly making landfall Monday morning rather than Monday night?

I ask because we're in Kissimmee (in a mobile home), with parents in Stuart (their roof is badly damaged). We've rented a U-Haul and were planning on packing our stuff up today, picking them and their stuff up tomorrow morning, and then getting out of Dodge. We want to hide out in Savannah with my sister!

Unfortunately my parents have now heard the latest forecast tracks and think they're in the clear. I will impress on them they aren't, but I do think we could adjust our timetable for leaving by a day perhaps, going Sunday instead of Saturday. Or should we just go, and drag the parents kicking and screaming?

[StrongWind]

Don't forget to take into consideration not just the timing of the storm but the flood of people that will hit the roads on Sunday as well. The turnpike and possibly even 95 could be clogged no matter where the storm is projected to go. Be safe.

SW