So please tell me why?

[Stormcenter]

So please tell me why do people on this board not question the NHC when they predict Ivan will strengthen to a cat. 5 but when they predict he will weaken everyone disagrees and gets in a uproar?

I think these guys (NHC) are just a little bit more qualified than anyone on this board. Yeah they will make mistakes but then who doesn't.

[chadtm80]

Stormcenter where is the uproar?? I see NO uproar

[Josephine96]

It's just an element of conversation. Everyone is entitled to an opinion

[logybogy]

Because watching a potential Cat 5 historic trainwreck is much more exciting than watching a run of the mill Cat 2 or 3.

It's sick human nature.

[ColinD]

Because many people interested in Hurricanes have a bias toward wanting to see really powerful storms.

[ColinD]

Because watching a potential Cat 5 historic trainwreck is much more exciting than watching a run of the mill Cat 2 or 3.

It's sick human nature.

You said it better than me

[tronbunny]

Because I'm "in the cone" I'll root for the cat 2 or 3.

[Lockhart]

It's like people slowing down to look at an accident on the roadside. No one slows down to look at someone with a slightly skinned knee, but a gigantic pileup gets tons of rubber-neckers.

Personally, I'd be thrilled if every hurricane stalled a couple hundred miles off the coast of the first country it was scheduled to hit, weakening to tropical storm force. Sadly, we seem stuck with some hurricanes. I take the good (forecast to weaken) with the bad (forecast to hit SW Florida).

[Stormcenter]

Stormcenter where is the uproar?? I see NO uproar

O.K. maybe "uproar" is too strong of a word more like
"disagreement" with the NHC. I think the replies to this
post speak for themselves.

[dhweather]

We use the "mike tyson" method of discussion - we beat the crap out of each other until someone wins!

[CaptinCrunch]

Because watching a potential Cat 5 historic trainwreck is much more exciting than watching a run of the mill Cat 2 or 3.

It's sick human nature.

SO TRUE

[Tri-State_1925]

I gave the NHC a lot of flack for the way they handled Charley, but I haven't had any problems with them since. I thought Frances was handled excellently in all aspects.

[chadtm80]

Stormcenter where is the uproar?? I see NO uproar

O.K. maybe "uproar" is too strong of a word more like
"disagreement" with the NHC. I think the replies to this
post speak for themselves.

Ok. Show me the disagreements you speak of then

[Stormcenter]

Stormcenter where is the uproar?? I see NO uproar

O.K. maybe "uproar" is too strong of a word more like
"disagreement" with the NHC. I think the replies to this
post speak for themselves.

Ok. Show me the disagreements you speak of then

The response below is from a poster after reading that shear would
weaken Ivan in the GOM. Chad that does not sound like someone agreeing with the NHC. Do you want more?

Going by the data i have seen, i don't see the shear producing to the levels they believe. In the path of the storm on its way to cuba the shear has actually been decreasing in the past 24 hours.
-Eric

[Josephine96]

LOL I'm in the cone too

[B-Bear]

So everyone should just defer to the judgment of the NHC without analytical discussion of the merits of their forecasting? Please.

[Stormcenter]

So everyone should just defer to the judgment of the NHC without analytical discussion of the merits of their forecasting? Please.

I have no problem with that. The problem I have is when the NHC says "Ivan will be a Cat. 5 in the GOM" then everyone jumps on the bandwagon. But if its the other way around you have much more disagreement against the NHC as to why it shouldn't weaken.

[chadtm80]

Stormcenter where is the uproar?? I see NO uproar

O.K. maybe "uproar" is too strong of a word more like
"disagreement" with the NHC. I think the replies to this
post speak for themselves.

Ok. Show me the disagreements you speak of then

The response below is from a poster after reading that shear would
weaken Ivan in the GOM. Chad that does not sound like someone agreeing with the NHC. Do you want more?

Going by the data i have seen, i don't see the shear producing to the levels they believe. In the path of the storm on its way to cuba the shear has actually been decreasing in the past 24 hours.
-Eric

Thats a very CALM disagreement. I just dont see what your problem with it is?

[B-Bear]

Well here is why I personally had a problem with the NHC weakening Ivan to a cat 3 between Cuba and U.S. landfall: They are basing it on shear without mentioning anywhere that I can find where they expect this shear to come from. I personally don't see where it's coming from, and it has been speculated that they are forecasting the shear based upon faulty GFS model data. Perhaps that is not indeed the case, but, in the absence of some explanation from the NHC regarding WHY they think shear will become an issue, what are people to think? It's not exactly like the NHC has not relied upon questionable model data previously, despite the obviousness of the problem with the data.

In my opinion, they are potentially placing lives at risk by reducing Ivan's intensity to category 3 between Cuba and the U.S. if indeed they are not paying heed to faulty model predictions. There is already a general reluctance of Florida residents to evacuate--yet again--and if they are expecting a cat 3 storm rather than a strong cat 4/cat 5 storm, many of them may be less likely to evacuate. If that bears out, and the shear turns out to be some phantom speculation that doesn't materialize, how many people might be killed because of it?

That's why I personally am concerned about the NHC's reduction in intensity in the Gulf.

[Lockhart]

I think you're overthinking the NHC's lack of mention of the reasoning behind the belief in increased shear. Do you honestly believe the people in Florida would be more likely to evacuate if they saw "Based on the GFS model data" before that comment? Sure, *you* might be more likely to discount it, but I can't *imagine* that a significant number of people in Florida would base their evacuation decision on which model(s) the NHC forecasters used to decide a wind shear forecast.