Why doesn't NHC forcast agree w/models?

[sprink52]

In reviewing the models for Ivan it appears that they are all clustered around a SW Florida land fall with a path thru South Florida with an exit near the Northern Treasure Coast or Space Coast. I question why the NHC forcast is the western most outlier and not in agreement with any of the models.

[kevin]

The NHC forecast looks to be a compromise between the GFDL and the other tropical models. Just wait for the 11 o clock discussion to come out, I'm sure they'll shift a bit east.

[Anonymous]

I agree with Kevin...Look for a NHC center to adjust track East on next update

[Dean4Storms]

You are not seeing all the Models, the NOGAPS keeps Ivan further west with a landfall in the FL. Panhandle near Panama City, the Candian is further west and so is the FSU Superensemble.

[chadtm80]

I posted this earlier as well. Seem to be hugging the GFDL.. But The NHC knows what they are doing.. But I would expect a East shift as well

[das8929]

Im thinking of the projected path being shifted east again, back to around yesterdays path.

[kevin]

You are not seeing all the Models, the NOGAPS keeps Ivan further west with a landfall in the FL. Panhandle near Panama City, the Candian is further west and so is the FSU Superensemble.<<

good point, especially with the FSU Superensemble. Might be a reason for NHC not to drastically redraw their projections. We'll know soon enough.

[Derek Ortt]

Because the NHC has access to many models that are not widely available

Many are well west of the NHC track, such as GFDN, NOGAPS (into Alabama), CMC, etc

[Matt]

I've heard there is a model from FSU that is not available to the public. It is reserved for the students, faculty, and of course the NHC. This model is still pointing west of the other models and it seems like the NHC relies heavily on this model. Can anyone confirm this?

[Dean4Storms]

Also, note that the BAMM and BAMD take Ivan further westward to near the Isle of Pines and the abruptly turn Ivan more NNE. If Ivan makes it this far west any turn won't be as abrupt as the BAMM and BAMD indicate and you have to even shift their own landfalls more northward up the west coast.

[weatherfsu]

The NHC is keeping their official track close to what the FSU SuperEnsemble is forecasting. The SuperEnsemble correctly forecasted Frances and Charley so the NHC doesn't want to stray too far from it.

[jlauderdal]

In reviewing the models for Ivan it appears that they are all clustered around a SW Florida land fall with a path thru South Florida with an exit near the Northern Treasure Coast or Space Coast. I question why the NHC forcast is the western most outlier and not in agreement with any of the models.

NHC the last few days admitted low confidence on day 4 and 5 so they are taking the consensus and going with that. There is no point in them making big shifts every 6 hours until they can get a solution that has a higher degree of confidence. I would think they would start moving a bit east as we have seen the west biased models starting to move east.

[flair]

The track will shift west if anything at 11 AM. Avila is religious about the GFDL and FSU superensembe and gives then more weight than the other models. Stewart will be back in the morning and will nudge the track east again.

[wxwatcher2]

NHC has been really spot on with their tracks this season.

I don't particularly love the 5 day forecasts because there is so much room for error and it gets people too nervous or relaxed as the case may be.

I say a center of Fla hit again.

Wanna buy some swamp land?

[jlauderdal]

The track will shift west if anything at 11 AM. Avila is religious about the GFDL and FSU superensembe and gives then more weight than the other models. Stewart will be back in the morning and will nudge the track east again.

doubt it...he is running out of support for this move west.

[Dean4Storms]

Because the NHC has access to many models that are not widely available

Many are well west of the NHC track, such as GFDN, NOGAPS (into Alabama), CMC, etc

Uhh, into Alabama after it blows through the FL. Panhandle......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

[sprink52]

The graphic I saw didn't include the far western models for some reason. I just got finished proping up big palms and cleaning a pick up full of leaves and limbs out of my pool. Most of the homes in my neighborhood have huge piles of branches and cut up trees lining the streets which will become shrapnel with hurricane force winds from Ivan. Folks this looking very serious for South Florida and the Treasure Coast.

[x-y-no]

Also, note that the BAMM and BAMD take Ivan further westward to near the Isle of Pines and the abruptly turn Ivan more NNE. If Ivan makes it this far west any turn won't be as abrupt as the BAMM and BAMD indicate and you have to even shift their own landfalls more northward up the west coast.

I've noticed this before about the BAMs: If they diverge from the GFS in the earlier part of a track, they tend to be pulled back towards it near the end. I don't consider that much of a northeastward turn realistic at all.

[Greg]

The 5 day forecast is like a chimp walking through a mall with a loaded revolver.

[Nolezfan]

"I say a center of Fla hit again.

Wanna buy some swamp land?"

That's not a particularly comforting thing for you to say, as some of us currently reside in the "swamp land..."