A little more westnorthwest wobble

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cycloneye
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A little more westnorthwest wobble

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:10 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Every wobble west will be very important for Jamaica as it is closing in on that island as those movements will make the eye pass just south not cross the island.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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chadtm80

#2 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:10 am

Im not seeing a west wobble.
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#3 Postby Hurricanegurl56 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:11 am

niether am i..
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Stormcenter
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Re: A little more west wobble

#4 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:12 am

cycloneye wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Every wobble west will be very important for Jamaica as it is closing in on that island as those movements will make the eye pass just south not cross the island.



It's really hard to tell but it sure does look like it's
headed for south coast of Jamaica.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Last edited by Stormcenter on Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5 Postby Greg » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:14 am

South would be worse anyway due to the right side of the storm speed increase.
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#6 Postby B-Bear » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:14 am

Worse yet, it looks like it's headed for just west of Kingston. :(
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#7 Postby hial2 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:18 am

It's really hard to tell but it sure does look like it's
headed for south coast of Jamiaca


AT THIS TIME it seems more likely to hit or miss Jamaica to the north than to the south..at least that's what the VIS loop seems like to me
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#8 Postby tw861 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:18 am

Well, the last two recon fixes before the aircraft left the area showed mostly west movement. Of course there was only about 40 minutes betwen the fixes.

1023z- 1610n/7429w
1105z- 1613n/7438w .3n/.9w

So, there probably was a jog to the left but without a well defined eye on the sat pics it's probably harder to pick up.
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#9 Postby hial2 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:23 am

.3n/.9w is wnw movement...Just .1 more to the north and it would be moving nw
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#10 Postby x-y-no » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:26 am

Assuming the forecast point plots on the IR floater are accurate, he seems to be moving ever so slightly on the right side of the forecast track. Near enough to be called dead on.

I would point out that the forcast track has a very small bend left after the next point. Whether that verifies makes a huge difference.
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#11 Postby TyphoonTim » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:29 am

I see a little bit of a westward shift too. Looking at the latest WV loop, the dry high pressure area really makes a push over the Bahamas and pretty much cleans out the air there. Also look at the northern outflow of Ivan - it it getting squashed. But the big low in the Atlantic has been looking more and more impressive lately - sucking in the northern outflow from Ivan and picking up some steam headed SW. It will be interesting to watch this battle off the coast of Florida. My hope is that the high can be weakened enough to allow Ivan a more northerly course and sparing most of FL. Just like yesterday, I won't be getting much work done at the office - I'll be glued to the computer watching this unfold.
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#12 Postby hial2 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:30 am

x, keep an eye on the forecasted bend..I've noticed that the forecast points some(most)times change to fit the current track..dont be surprised if the bend dissapears and the storm is suddenly right on
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#13 Postby x-y-no » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:33 am

hial2 wrote:x, keep an eye on the forecasted bend..I've noticed that the forecast points some(most)times change to fit the current track..dont be surprised if the bend dissapears and the storm is suddenly right on


Yes, but in this case it's going to be really easy to see because the next plot point is on the island.
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#14 Postby Cape Verde » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:33 am

The eye seems to have disappeared. Is this an eyewall replacement cycle?<P>And if so, does that signal an increase in intensity before slamming into Jamaica?
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#15 Postby Frank P » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:35 am

hial2 wrote:.3n/.9w is wnw movement...Just .1 more to the north and it would be moving nw


actually to be NW it would have to be .9n and .9w, they would have to be equal to be true NW.... a one to one relationship

.4 and .9 is still wnw....
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#16 Postby hial2 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:45 am

My bad..Totally correct Frank.
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#17 Postby FritzPaul » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:53 am

B-Bear wrote:Worse yet, it looks like it's headed for just west of Kingston. :(


Strange: I just looked at TWC's link for Kingston and it said current winds: CALM

This sure is a tightly compacted storm, or their wind gauge is broken.
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c5Camille

#18 Postby c5Camille » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:54 am

the proverbial "calm before the storm"
<prayer>
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