Why NOGAPS is wrong and too far west....

[ericinmia]

It is improperly initializing the low in the atlantic that is effecting the high.
The nogaps was last run at 8am on thursday... it never predicted the low to reach further south.
The NOGAPS shows the low at 35 degrees at its lowest point and maintains it there through the forecast period before killing it off after 85 hours.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation
The current data now shows that this low has moved down to 25 degrees give or take.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm5.GIF

What does this little thing have to do with the track of Ivan of FL?
The NOGAPS has the high remaining very strong throughout the forecast period. However if the low moves south-southwest as it did, that will cause the bermuda high to weaken. This in turn weakend the westerly stearing currents that would drive Ivan farther west.
-Eric

[ericinmia]

The new NOGAPS should be out around 7:30-8:00am...

It should now show a more eastward path...

[yankeelmbb]

when is the 48-72 hour out on this thing?

[ericinmia]

when is the 48-72 hour out on this thing?

I am sorry i don't understand what your asking?
When will fla be in the 72 hour range... or what is occuring in the 72 hour range?
-Eric

[mobilebay]

The Nogaps I showed on the thread is the 00Z RUN. There will not be another one until 12Z wich will be available around noon.

[NorthGaWeather]

The NOGAPS run at 00Z is further West. That is the 12z that takes it into the big bend the 00z takes it further West into Panhandle.

[mobilebay]

Remember in that tightly clusterd model concensus, You have basicly three Global agreements. 1. The GFS. 2. The EURO. 3.. The UKMET
The GFDL AND BAMM models are biased to the GFS. IF the GFS keeps going west so will the GFDL, and BAMM. The UKMET has flip-flopped on every run so for. Note- even the Euro is a little further west than last night. Also the GFS has been tracking further west the last 5 or 6 runns . The 06 run will be interesting.

[ericinmia]

Damn... i;m getting too tired to read properly. Sorry.

I belive that by the end of tonight we should have a very good handle on where this storm will be striking in florida, give or take 60 miles

[yankeelmbb]

I'm sorry...also sleep deprived.....I meant when would it be 48 -72 hours out of the Florida landfall. Basically when will the predictions become more accurate...I live Melbourne.

[Nimbus]

Looked at the water vapor loop this morning to see what the models that shifted west are looking at. It appears that the west end of the atlantic ridge is starting to erode as another high is starting to build east over Florida and bridge where the Frances trough was. There is not enough there yet to be certain but perhaps the models see Ivan missing the current weakness in the atlantic ridge and getting more steering from a new high forming near the gulf coast? This would only make a difference if Ivan slows down when he nears Cuba and there is time for the new ridge to develop though.