Whoever finds the 0Z Euro first, post it here

calidoug · #1 Postby **calidoug** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 1:31 am

Should be up soon, right?

#2 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 1:46 am

at 3 a.m. sharp

#3 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 1:55 am

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

bingo...

Talk about model consensus... this falls in line with the rest of the models...

NOW the key is can they hold for the next couple days!
I doubt it, i expect at least for them to sway 100 miles west or east before eventual landfall. But, it is beautiful to see them soo on target as of right now.
-Eric

#4 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 1:56 am

It shows THE BIG ONE for Tampa! I don't even know what to think right now.

JayPSU · #5 Postby **JayPSU** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 1:58 am

seems to also imply a deepening hurricane right before landfall in TB, something that the NHC to this point has not been showing.

yankeelmbb · #6 Postby **yankeelmbb** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:03 am

Tampa.....right over central Florida......am I wrong?

#7 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:06 am

Here is a blown up view... with a couple labels...
I AM HOSTING IT... so it is not using any bandwidth from s2k.
Not good for all Florida AGAIN...

but Very bad for Tampa.
-Eric

#8 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:06 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:It shows THE BIG ONE for Tampa! I don't even know what to think right now.

start thinking about the gem not verifying?

#9 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:12 am

jlauderdal wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:It shows THE BIG ONE for Tampa! I don't even know what to think right now.

start thinking about the gem not verifying?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm thinking. How in the world did you even guess??? :roll:

I had an odd feeling in my gut that it would shift east tonight, but it's still the westernmost outlier that I've seen so far. I'm not giving up yet, but it's pretty amazing that such a consensus has been made this early. I'm still keeping the spread of a Tampa to N.O. possibility though.

#10 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:16 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:It shows THE BIG ONE for Tampa! I don't even know what to think right now.

start thinking about the gem not verifying?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm thinking. How in the world did you even guess???

I had an odd feeling in my gut that it would shift east tonight, but it's still the westernmost outlier that I've seen so far. I'm not giving up yet, but it's pretty amazing that such a consensus has been made this early. I'm still keeping the spread of a Tampa to N.O. possibility though.

its not over till its over. at least you stuck with it and who knows it might still verify but i doubt it with a heading of 300.

#11 Postby **ericinmia** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:16 am

I still believe strongly that this "consensus" should not be viewed as a final outcome.

Anywhere from the bahamas to la and all the GOM interest should watch this.

The storm is still too many days away with very many variables that may change dramatically...
I hope that one day we can forecast with certainty this far out, it would save a lot of time, effort, and lives.
-Eric

FungusMoldlyColdcuts · #12 Postby **FungusMoldlyColdcuts** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:43 am

ericinmia wrote:I still believe strongly that this "consensus" should not be viewed as a final outcome.

Anywhere from the bahamas to la and all the GOM interest should watch this.

The storm is still too many days away with very many variables that may change dramatically...
I hope that one day we can forecast with certainty this far out, it would save a lot of time, effort, and lives.
-Eric

what about the SE coast and mid atlantic.

FungusMoldlyColdcuts · #13 Postby **FungusMoldlyColdcuts** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 2:44 am

jlauderdal wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
PurdueWx80 wrote:It shows THE BIG ONE for Tampa! I don't even know what to think right now.

start thinking about the gem not verifying?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm thinking. How in the world did you even guess???

I had an odd feeling in my gut that it would shift east tonight, but it's still the westernmost outlier that I've seen so far. I'm not giving up yet, but it's pretty amazing that such a consensus has been made this early. I'm still keeping the spread of a Tampa to N.O. possibility though.

its not over till its over. at least you stuck with it and who knows it might still verify but i doubt it with a heading of 300.

I seriously doubt anyone is going to 'stick with' the GGEM. although I would not write off a slight shift west or east at this point, which would have huge implications on track

Whoever finds the 0Z Euro first, post it here

Whoever finds the 0Z Euro first, post it here

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