Nothing to Sneeze At: The Carolinas Tropical Record 2004

[Guest]

Charleston to Wilmington, Raleigh to Charlotte, the Carolinas, have been visited by 5 systems this year (every landfalling system), except Danielle, Earl, and Hermine.

In any case, while nothing to compare to Florida the residual affects of, or direct affects of, tropical systems on the Carolinas has been REAL.

The banana tree in my yard in Raleigh looks like shredded paper and after being battered by Charlie and Gaston, Frances finally took down two trees in my 30' X 20' rear yard.

Living during the week in Charlotte, I was awakened in my north Charlotte home the other morning at 6:00 am when the tornado warning alarms went off (again) because of Frances.

Again, and I hate to have to qualify this, with all due respect to the suffering in Florida, the Carolinas have not had an easy year. Without the benefit of the immense knowledge of others on this site related to the weather...what are your thoughts about the potential impact of IVAN on the Carolinas?

Thank you for your patience and information!!!!

[TLHR]

Flooding, landslides, and gusty winds

Look at all of the Flash Flood Watches and Warnings left over from Frances!!

http://www.wunderground.com/severe.asp

[Stormsfury]

Unfortunately, Ivan's forecasted track would make number 6 on the Carolinas impact list ... in some form or another ...

Still two unclear possibilities ... the NHC track would bring Ivan inland and running inland (extrapolation) WEST of the Carolinas placing the two states on the eastern face of the storm, historically the worst part ..

The other possible scenario, ECMWF depiction in which a more significant impact is felt along the Coastal Carolinas with Ivan curving a little more sharply north, making several landfalls ... Jamaica, Cuba, brushing Florida, and northward into the Central/NE part of South Carolina ...

The unclear question is WHERE the recurve actually begins ... right now, I'm MORE inclined to go with the first scenario laid out ...

SF

[Guest]

I've learned about the "worst" side of the storm from Frances in a way that I hadn't experienced before when I was on the eastern side of other "historic" Carolina storms like Fran and Floyd. Specifically, tornadoes... Frances really proved the point about the potential for tropical system related tornadoes...

I'm wondering if, like Frances, we'll see a repeat of Frances like conditions in the Carolinas and if so, how far east?

I wonder because I live in Charlotte AND Raleigh...

[TLHR]

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

The core of Ivan is about the size of South Carolina.
When hurricanes come ashore, they slow down and spread out, much like a figure skater will put their arms out to slow down.

So I expect the entire Southeast to experience major flooding.
The ground simply cannot hold any more water.
Even here in Mt. Pleasant, SC, many drainage ditches have standing water in them.

Ivan will be bad, in my opinion.

[chicagopizza]

I never see coastal GA mentioned. I just moved here. Is it considered (in weather terms) part of the "Carolinas" or is it the same as a regular map "Coastal GA"? Just trying to figure out if we would have the same problems as you all or if we wouldn't be bothered by Ivan....

[Guest]

I wouldn't consider Georgia in the same context as "The Carolinas" when it comes to tropical systems. Not being an expert though, I think that this is b/c GA is not affected as much, or at least as directly overall, as are "The Carolinas". This season, however, with Bonnie, Charley, Frances, and now, potentially, Ivan, I would say that we are all in the same boat as Florida.

[TLHR]

Savannah is a great city.
Because of the curve of Ga's coastline, it rarely sees direct hits from hurricanes, unlike FL and NC which jut out into hurricane-prone areas.

I'd be prepared for lots of rain, street flooding, loss of power and gusty winds.

The areas I'm most concerned of are the mountainous parts of GA, SC, NC, TN, and VA where the rivers are full and the ground is saturated.

Hope this helps.
Click on the WWW for more info on Lowcountry preparedness.

[chicagopizza]

Thank you. That info is very helpful.

[Stormsfury]

I never see coastal GA mentioned. I just moved here. Is it considered (in weather terms) part of the "Carolinas" or is it the same as a regular map "Coastal GA"? Just trying to figure out if we would have the same problems as you all or if we wouldn't be bothered by Ivan....

Sorry about leaving you out in Georgia ... scenario number #1 would be a LOT worse for you than scenario #2 ...

Scenario #1 would put you in the same kind of peril that Frances did just a few days ago, with a heightened tornado threat, and flooding problems yet again ... CHS (CLX) doppler radar estimates of up to 15"+ were estimated near Vidalia, GA with widespread amounts in excess of 8" .. and frankly, the ground there, just as well as here cannot take much more ...

Scenario #2 would place you on the weaker side of Ivan, and possibly far enough offshore for Savannah as to not feel too many effects (UNLESS the storm comes in south of Charleston, then it's a whole new ballgame) ...

Either way, neither scenario is etched in stone, and the recurve point must be established to get a better handle on where Ivan sets it eye upon ...

[chicagopizza]

This is one time I don't mind not being included-trust me. I hate tornados though, so I will track for that alone. I figured it was a low risk zone. Thanks for backing that up.

Hope everyone can get through this with as little problems as possible.

[Guest]

This is one time I don't mind not being included-trust me. I hate tornados though, so I will track for that alone. I figured it was a low risk zone. Thanks for backing that up.

Hope everyone can get through this with as little problems as possible.

I agree...looking forward to the end of November!!!

(P.S. Welcome to the South!)

[chicagopizza]

Thanks.

[Guest]

... A River Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers. The Broad River... French Broad River... And The Saluda River.

For The French Broad River At Blantyre... Major Flooding Was Occuring... With A Stage Of 22.5 Feet Measured At 10 PM Thursday. The River Is Forecast To Fall Below Flood Stage At 2 PM Saturday. At 22.9 Feet... Expect Major Flooding Of Farmfields Along The River.

For The French Broad River At Asheville... Moderate Flooding Was Occuring... With A Stage Of 11.6 Feet Measured At 10 PM Thursday. The River Is Forecast To Fall Below Flood Stage At 6 PM Friday. At 12.4 Feet... Moderate Flooding Will Occur To Buildings In The Flood Plain Mainly Dowstream From The Pearson Street Bridge.

For The French Broad River At Marshall... Minor Flooding Was Occuring... With A Stage Of 9.2 Feet Measured At 9 PM Thursday. The River Is Forecast To Fall Below Flood Stage At 9 AM Friday. At 10.0 Feet... The School Yard On Blennerhassett Island Will Be Flooded And There Will Be Further Flooding Of Buildings On The Left Bank.

For The French Broad River At Hot Springs... Moderate Flooding Was Occuring... With A Stage Of 14.6 Feet Measured At 8 PM Thursday. The River Is Forecast To Fall Below Flood Stage At 10 AM Friday. At 16.0 Feet... Lovers Leap Road On The Right Bank And Mountain Park Hotel Bath House Will Be Flooded.

For The Saluda River At West Pelzer... Minor Flooding Was Occuring... With A Stage Of 11.8 Feet Measured At 8 PM Thursday. Moderate Flooding Is Forecast... With A Crest Around 12.9 Feet At 2 AM Friday... Which Is 2.8 Feet Above Flood Stage. The River Is Forecast To Fall Below Flood Stage At 1 PM Saturday. At 12.0 Feet... Stage Operations At The Upper Pelzer Dam Will Be Effected.

For The Broad River Near Blacksburg... Minor Flooding Was Occuring... With A Stage Of 19.1 Feet Measured At 8 PM Thursday. Moderate Flooding Is Forecast... With A Crest Around 22.2 Feet At 2 AM Friday... Which Is 6.2 Feet Above Flood Stage. The River Is Forecast To Fall Below Flood Stage At 6 AM Saturday.

[BUD]

could IVAN pose a threat to SC/NC border and yes we also have alot of flood warnings for some of our rivers here because of what frances left behind. yes not as bad as what she did to florida. Iam very sorry what she and charley did to them.